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Back to ARMSMACountry levels of Oct 19 · source times vary

Nocton · Automatic analysis

Eight analyses recomputed every half hour from the data on this site. Each states its method in one line; nothing is learned or hidden.

Computed Oct 19, 2026, 8:42 PM

Unusual today

Each country's signals today against the same signal over its own last 30 days. Listed when at least two standard deviations above its average (z ≥ 2) and above a minimum, so one event against zero is not news. These are counts of rare events, so the spread is never taken below the square root of the average or below 1: otherwise one burst after a quiet month reads as dozens of standard deviations. The usual range shows what the country's own history was.

CountrySignalNowUsual rangeDeviation
NorwaySevere weather warnings in force50–44.0σ
The GambiaConfirmed outages, places, 24 h30–1from about 0
ItalyExtreme weather warnings in force30–2from about 0
SudanNatural hazards, 7 days30–2from about 0
AustraliaNatural hazards, 7 days294–252.1σ

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Harm to civilians

Share of deaths in organised violence that were civilians, last 90 days of data, countries with at least 25 deaths. "One-sided" is violence by an armed group or government against civilians.

CountryDeathsCiviliansOne-sided
Myanmar31679%15%
Democratic Republic of the Congo63178%57%
Indonesia3067%50%
Syria19567%53%
Sudan80666%13%
Haiti16956%84%
Afghanistan12047%6%
Cameroon15945%42%
India3944%49%
South Africa8040%39%
Nigeria2,22025%23%
Kenya2524%24%
Ethiopia87623%20%
Central African Republic5121%23%
Israel41620%4%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Lethality

Deaths per recorded incident, last 90 days, countries with at least 10 incidents. High values point to heavy weapons, massacres or large battles rather than many small clashes.

CountryIncidentsDeathsPer incident
Ukraine91015,66917.2
Niger3340712.3
Lebanon1021,19211.7
Haiti191698.9
Yemen1871,6498.8
Somalia1128357.5
Sudan1448065.6
Mozambique17935.5
Nigeria4702,2204.7
Ethiopia1868764.7
Iraq12564.7
Burkina Faso1295604.3
Central African Republic13513.9
Democratic Republic of the Congo1656313.8
Pakistan4911,7503.6

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Concentration

How much of the world's recorded toll falls on the few worst-affected countries, last 90 days of data.

30,802 deaths in 61 countries. They are concentrated: the worst-affected country alone accounts for 51%; together with the next two, 64%; the five worst together, 73%. Each figure includes the one before, so they do not add up to 100%.

  1. 1. Ukraine51%
  2. 2. Nigeria7%
  3. 3. Pakistan6%
  4. 4. Yemen5%
  5. 5. Lebanon4%
  6. 6. Ethiopia3%
  7. 7. Somalia3%
  8. 8. Sudan3%
  9. 9. Colombia2%
  10. 10. Democratic Republic of the Congo2%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Escalation

Deaths in the last 14 days of data against the 14 before, countries with at least 20 in either period. ▲ rising, ▼ falling.

Country14 d beforeLast 14 dChange
Haiti047▲ new
Niger339▲ new
Israel865▲ +705%
Ethiopia65209▲ +224%
Democratic Republic of the Congo56105▲ +86%
Mexico91105▲ +15%
Syria2629▲ +12%
Colombia112120▲ +7%
Mali7414▼ -81%
Afghanistan4412▼ -73%
Burkina Faso12049▼ -59%
Somalia9540▼ -58%
Nigeria628348▼ -45%
Sudan14182▼ -42%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Crises that come together

How many countries have two kinds of crisis at once, from today's signals. The diagonal is the number of countries with that kind at all.

ViolenceHazardsOutbreaksHungerDisplacementOutagesTravel advice
Violence
50
12
1
25
22
6
32
Hazards
12
27
0
6
5
1
6
Outbreaks
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
Hunger
25
6
1
29
18
4
21
Displacement
22
5
1
18
27
3
21
Outages
6
1
0
4
3
12
6
Travel advice
32
6
1
21
21
6
51

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Hazard hotspots

Countries with the most natural-hazard events in the last 30 days, by type.

  • Flood
  • Wildfire

GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET

All signals by country

Every number the situation watch reads, for every country: the latest day and the same day a week before. Pick a signal; sort by value or by change.

49 countries
Week before
Ukraine5,467612+4,855
Yemen1,4001,367+33
Nigeria1,006999+7
Pakistan5475470
Ethiopia283272+11
Sudan2702700
Colombia246245+1
Mexico207206+1
Democratic Republic of the Congo176170+6
Burkina Faso1711710
Somalia1471470
Myanmar121115+6
South Sudan1091090
Israel94940
Mali90900
Syria62620
Afghanistan56560
Russia54540
Haiti47470
Niger42420
South Africa36360
Cameroon31310
Brazil22220
Lebanon22220
India16160
Chad16160
Iran15150
Indonesia14140
Central African Republic11110
Philippines10100
Mozambique85+3
Ivory Coast770
Libya660
Venezuela660
Bangladesh550
Guatemala550
Burundi440
Thailand440
Spain330
Ghana330
Sri Lanka330
Chile220
Iraq220
Uganda220
United States of America220
France110
Papua New Guinea1 – –
Tajikistan110
Zambia110

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

How current the data is

The newest record from each source. A source that stops updating is shown here first, before it can mislead a chart.

SourceLatest recordWhat it feeds
UCDP GED CandidateAug 31, 2026Violence: deaths, incidents, conflicts (published with a lag of weeks)
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONETOct 19, 2026, 8:20 PMEarthquakes, floods, cyclones, fires, volcanoes
WMO Severe WeatherOct 19, 2026, 8:42 PMSevere-weather warnings
USGS PAGEROct 19, 2026, 8:42 PMExpected earthquake impact
Copernicus EMSOct 19, 2026, 4:03 PMSatellite mapping of disasters
WHO Disease Outbreak NewsOct 19, 2026, 8:42 PMDisease outbreak notices
IODAOct 19, 2026, 8:42 PMInternet outages
UK FCDOOct 19, 2026, 8:42 PMTravel advice levels
World Bank population2025Population, for rates per million
ARMSMA situation watchOct 19, 2026Levels, scores and signals
ARMSMA weekly briefOct 19, 2026, 8:20 PMThe weekly brief

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