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Back to ARMSMACountry levels of Oct 20 · source times vary

Somalia

SevereScore 8Open the map

Violence in the news: 52 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×0.9 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Protests in the news: 4 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Model estimate for September 2026: 83–528 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 147). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →

Level, last 60 days

  • Deaths 30 d

    147

    UCDP up to 2026-08-31

  • Per million 90 d

    42

    last 90 days

  • Civilians

    1%

    last 90 days

  • Incidents 30 d

    37

  • Population

    19.7 M

    World Bank

  • Plants near violence

    0 / 0

    near violence / total; 0 nuclear

Why this level4

  • +3147 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
  • +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
  • +25.5 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
  • +11.1 million refugees and asylum-seekers have fled the countryUNHCR

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Every monitored signal

The last 60 days, each on its own scale.

  • Violence deaths, 30 days

    147

  • Travel advice level (FCDO)

    3

  • Violence incidents, 30 days

    37

  • People in food crisis (IPC 3+)

    5 500 000

  • Refugees who fled

    1 128 308

  • Confirmed outages, places, 24 h

    1

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Deaths in organised violence, per week

Somalia, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.

The latest week may be incomplete.

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Who the violence is between

Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.

  • State-based conflict · 95%
  • Non-state conflict · 4%
  • Against civilians · 1%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Food, displacement, sanctions

People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
5.5 M
2026-09
Share in food crisis
28%
2026-09
Undernourishment
56.5%
2024
Refugees who fled
–
Refugees hosted
–
Internally displaced
–
Sanctions designations
105
2026-10-20
GDP per person
$661
2025

FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions

People in crisis-level food insecurity

IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).

FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis

Latest incidents of organised violence25

DatePlaceSidesDeathsCiviliansReported by
2026-08-31Basra areaGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab30Goobjoog News, Hiiraan News
2026-08-30 – 2026-09-01Elasha Biyaha areaGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-29Barsa village near town of MarkaGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab50Somali National News Agency (SONNA), BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-29outskirts of Mogadishu's Deynile DistrictGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-28village of MubarakGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-26 – 2026-08-27Deynile and Yaqshid districts in MogadishuGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-24 – 2026-08-27Jilib townGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab30BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-24near Balidogle military baseGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-23JilibGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab10BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-22Madah-Marodi village near the Balidhogle military baseGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-22Wargaadhi areaGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab10Goobjoog News
2026-08-21 – 2026-08-22Daru-nicma areaGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab20Hiiraan News
2026-08-21bases located in MubarakGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-21Tawakal area which is approximately five kilometres from Ali Gadud villageGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab10Hiiraan News, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-20in the village of Dhalan near the border town of DhobleyGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab20BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-20Mahadaay districtGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab20Hiiraan News
2026-08-19Fidow areaGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab20Goobjoog News
2026-08-19near Baidoa townGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab180BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-18MogadishuGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-17bases in the town BaidoaGovernment of Somalia – Forces of Laftagareen400Reuters News, Reuters News, Agence France Presse
2026-08-16Tardo areaGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab80Xinhua News Agency, Goobjoog News, Somali National News Agency (SONNA)
2026-08-15checkpoint at Fagah junction in MogadishuGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-14near the town of AwdhigleGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-14Warciise area, 25 kilometers from Jowhar townGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab90Xinhua News Agency, Goobjoog News, Hiiraan News
2026-08-12Maxaas districtGovernment of Somalia – Al-Shabaab70Goobjoog News, Hiiraan News, Somali National News Agency (SONNA)

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Conflicts, 90 days6

  • Somalia: Government791
  • Unidentified armed groups (Somalia)22
  • IS - SFC15
  • Al-Shabaab - Civilians6
  • Unidentified armed group (Somalia)1
  • Kenya: Northeastern Province and Coast0

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Natural hazards, 30 days0

None in the last 30 days.

GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET

Warnings and notices

UK FCDO: Somalia: Avoid all travel to parts

No severe weather warning in force.

UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS

Next 7 days in Mogadishu

Day°CRainGustsWatch
Tue, Oct 2024…312.0 mm41 km/h
Wed, Oct 2126…304.9 mm43 km/h
Thu, Oct 2225…301.0 mm35 km/h
Fri, Oct 2326…301.3 mm34 km/h
Sat, Oct 2426…301.8 mm30 km/h
Sun, Oct 2525…305.1 mm32 km/h
Mon, Oct 2624…3110.2 mm36 km/h

Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.

Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)

Food prices in markets14

ItemPriceUSDYear
Sorghum (red) / KG28,227.7 SLS49.39+56%
Maize (white) / KG28,650 SLS50.13+77%
Rice (imported) / KG38,567.5 SLS67.48+46%
Milk (camel) / L46,215.63 SLS80.86+60%
Exchange rate / USD/LCU40,000 SLS69.99+43%
Fuel (diesel) / L43,637.5 SLS76.36+48%
Pasta / KG41,875 SLS73.27+40%
Wheat flour (imported) / KG24,718.63 SLS43.25+18%
Sorghum (white) / KG33,900 SLS59.32+31%
Sugar (white) / KG32,500 SLS56.87+9%
Potatoes / KG28,990.63 SLS50.73-2%
Salt / KG14,750 SLS25.81+9%
Cowpeas / KG57,409.64 SLS100.45+43%
Onions / KG33,000 SLS57.74+3%

Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-08); change against the same month a year before.

WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)

Disasters since 20008

032000: 020002001: 02002: 02003: 02004: 02005: 020052006: 02007: 02008: 02009: 02010: 020102011: 02012: 02013: 02014: 02015: 020152016: 02017: 02018: 02019: Floods 12020: Tropical cyclones 1, Floods 220202021: 02022: 02023: Floods 22024: 02025: Droughts 120252026: Droughts 12026

DroughtsFloodsTropical cyclones

  • Drought in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Chad · Jun 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 2649772 km2
  • Drought in Kenya, Somalia · May 21, 2025 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 124167 km2
  • Flood in Somalia · Oct 4, 2023 · Magnitude 0
  • Flood in Somalia · Mar 20, 2023 · Magnitude 0
  • Tropical Cyclone GATI-20 · Nov 21, 2020 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 185 km/h)
  • Flood in Somalia · May 21, 2020 · Magnitude 0
  • Flood in Somalia · Apr 20, 2020 · Magnitude 0
  • Flood in Somalia · Oct 20, 2019 · Magnitude 0

GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)

Next elections1

  • March 2027 – Parliament

Wikipedia – national electoral calendar (CC BY-SA)