Nocton
Open-source situational awareness: conflict, disasters, health and infrastructure, read automatically from public sources and compared with each country's own recent past.
Reading of 2026-10-19
Countries elevated or worse
28
-2 (-7%)vs 30 before
Deaths in organised violence, 30 days
10 854
+1 174 (+12%)vs 9 680 before
UCDP data up to 2026-08-31
Natural-hazard events, 7 days
151
-149 (-50%)vs 300 before
Countries under severe-weather warning
19
6 with extreme warnings
Satellite-mapping activations, 30 days
3
-5 (-62%)vs 8 before
Power plants near violence
46
3 of them nuclear
How fresh the data are
- Natural hazards (GDACS, USGS)10/19/26, 6:55 PM UTC
- Fires (NASA FIRMS)10/19/26, 4:16 PM UTC
- Air traffic (OpenSky)10/19/26, 8:10 PM UTC
- Situation levelsOct 19, 2026
- Violence in the news (GDELT)Oct 18, 2026
- Verified organised violence (UCDP)Aug 31, 2026
Green: as fresh as the source publishes; amber: late; red: stale. UCDP publishes monthly for the month before, so its data are always 4–6 weeks behind. The news signal covers the weeks since.
Countries by situation level
Every country above normal on the latest reading.
- Watch · 36
- Elevated · 8
- High · 8
- Severe · 12
Source: ARMSMA situation watch, reading of 2026-10-19
Movers this week
Change in situation score against the reading seven days earlier. Right: worse. Left: better.
- Worse
- Better
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Violence in the news, this week
Violent events machine-coded from world news (GDELT), the 7 days to 2026-10-18, against the three weeks before. Fresh but not verified.
20,444 events, +5% against the weekly average before
Rising most
- Saudi Arabia719 · ×1.6
- State of Palestine264 · ×2
- Albania98 · ×18.4
- Ireland178 · ×1.5
- Bangladesh133 · ×1.7
- Indonesia114 · ×1.7
- Thailand86 · ×1.9
- South Korea95 · ×1.6
A count of news reports, not of incidents or casualties; it follows how much a country is written about, so compare a country with itself, not with others.
Deaths in organised violence per million people
Last 90 days of UCDP data, divided by population. A rate shows how heavily violence weighs on a country, which a raw count hides.
Sources: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31; World Bank population 2025 (CC BY 4.0). Countries under 500 000 people left out.
Compound crises
Countries where three or more kinds of crisis coincide: violence, natural hazards, disease, outages or official warnings. Coinciding crises are harder to answer than any one alone.
- Severe
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Compound crisis: organised violence, disease outbreaks, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Severe
South Sudan
Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Severe
Syria
Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
- Severe
Chad
Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity at the same time
- High
Colombia
Compound crisis: organised violence, natural hazards, food insecurity at the same time
- High
Venezuela
Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
Unusual for the country
Signals at least twice their own median of the previous 5+ days. The norm grows sharper as the archive grows.
- Italy
Extreme weather warnings in force
3usual 0 · from zero
- Thailand
Extreme weather warnings in force
1usual 0 · from zero
- Italy
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
51usual 1 · ×51
- United Kingdom
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
116usual 3 · ×38.7
- People's Republic of China
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
31usual 1 · ×31
- United States of America
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
22usual 1 · ×22
- Romania
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
21usual 1 · ×21
- Mexico
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
16usual 1 · ×16
- Philippines
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
41usual 3 · ×13.7
- Indonesia
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
11usual 1 · ×11
- Serbia
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
7usual 1 · ×7
- Ireland
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
7usual 1 · ×7
Model estimate · not UCDP data
Organised violence in September 2026: what the news suggests before UCDP publishes
≈ 8,238 (5,657–10,819) deaths in September 2026
≈ 7,934 (5,400–10,468) deaths in October 2026 · month not over
UCDP, August 2026: 11,118 deaths (published)
- Ukraine1,664–10,524(5,648 the month before)
- Nigeria265–1,679(1,015 the month before)
- Pakistan201–1,279(551 the month before)
- Ethiopia140–892(311 the month before)
- Yemen123–786(1,380 the month before)
- Democratic Republic of the Congo92–584(172 the month before)
Estimated from the last month UCDP has and from how each country's share of violent news moved since. Tested on 2023–2025: the world total was off by 31% a month on average. Ranges are where 8 in 10 past months fell. Replaced by UCDP's figures when they are published; never part of a level. How the model works →
Nocton reads open sources several times a day (UCDP, GDACS, USGS, NASA, WMO, WHO, Copernicus, IODA, UK FCDO, the World Bank and WRI) and compares each country with fixed thresholds and with its own last 30 days. It is not a forecast and not an assessment by any government; it says what the sources report, with the numbers, and every figure links back to its source.