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Back to ARMSMACountry levels of Oct 20 · source times vary

Sudan

SevereScore 9+1 in 7 daysOpen the map

Violence in the news: 92 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×1.1 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Protests in the news: 4 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Model estimate for October 2026: 107–676 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 277). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →

Level, last 60 days

  • Deaths 30 d

    277

    UCDP up to 2026-09-30

  • Per million 90 d

    16

    last 90 days

  • Civilians

    64%

    last 90 days

  • Incidents 30 d

    46

  • Population

    51.7 M

    World Bank

  • Plants near violence

    0 / 1

    near violence / total; 0 nuclear

Why this level5

  • +3270 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
  • +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
  • +222.5 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
  • +1Natural hazards, 7 days: 4, 2.5× its 30-day averageGDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
  • +13.8 million refugees and asylum-seekers have fled the countryUNHCR

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Every monitored signal

The last 60 days, each on its own scale.

  • Violence deaths, 30 days

    270

  • Violence incidents, 30 days

    46

  • Travel advice level (FCDO)

    3

  • People in food crisis (IPC 3+)

    22 500 000

  • Refugees who fled

    3 761 034

  • Natural hazards, 7 days

    4

  • Confirmed outages, places, 24 h

    1

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Deaths in organised violence, per week

Sudan, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.

The latest week may be incomplete.

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30

Who the violence is between

Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.

  • State-based conflict · 67%
  • Non-state conflict · 15%
  • Against civilians · 18%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Food, displacement, sanctions

People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
22.5 M
2026-09
Share in food crisis
44%
2026-09
Undernourishment
10.9%
2024
Refugees who fled
3,761,034
2025
Refugees hosted
859,963
2025
Internally displaced
9,139,309
2025
Sanctions designations
104
2026-10-20
GDP per person
$1,165
2025

FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions

People in crisis-level food insecurity

IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).

FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis

Latest incidents of organised violence25

DatePlaceSidesDeathsCiviliansReported by
2026-09-28 – 2026-10-04Azum localityMahamid – Salamat Baggara30Darfur 24
2026-09-28a sports field northwest of El ObeidGovernment of Sudan – SFA10ACJPS
2026-09-27Nyala cityGovernment of Sudan – SFA20Darfur 24
2026-09-25displacement shelter and civilian infrastructure in the central Sudanese city of El ObeidGovernment of Sudan – SFA32Sudan Tribune, Sudan War Monitor
2026-09-25town of Al-Mazrub in North Kordofan stateGovernment of Sudan – SFA20Sudan Tribune, Sudan War Monitor, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-09-24in the desert of North Darfur, between the Al-Tina border area with Chad and the city of Al-Dabba in the Northern StateSFA – Civilians1818ACJPS, Sudan War Monitor, Darfur 24
2026-09-24Sudri areaGovernment of Sudan – Civilians00Sudan War Monitor, BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-09-23in Mendi prisonSFA – Civilians88Sudan Tribune, Darfur 24, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-09-23 – 2026-09-25town of Sodari in North Kordofan stateGovernment of Sudan – SFA30Sudan Tribune, Ayin Network
2026-09-20gold mining market, Um Bader marketSFA – Civilians55Sudan Tribune
2026-09-20El Obeid cityGovernment of Sudan – SFA21Darfur 24, BBC Monitoring Round-up
2026-09-20town of QureidaFulani – Masalit90Sudan War Monitor, Sudan War Monitor, Darfur 24
2026-09-19MagajaGovernment of Sudan – SFA20Sudan Tribune
2026-09-19town of QureidaFulani – Masalit120Sudan War Monitor, Sudan War Monitor, Darfur 24
2026-09-19 – 2026-09-20town of QureidaFulani – Masalit100Sudan War Monitor
2026-09-18Mendi garrisonSFA – Civilians22ACJPS, Darfur 24
2026-09-18near Al-KailiGovernment of Sudan – SFA30Sudan Tribune
2026-09-16Al-Sareef neighborhood south of the city of NyalaSalamat Baggara – Shurfa100Darfur 24, Darfur 24
2026-09-15 – 2026-09-17Kajmar, Sharshar, Al-Baniyah Al-Kurayniyah, Al-Qulay’at, Awlad Hazmah, Magwildat, Rayshan, Al-Qaa, Ghabat Al-Laqad, Al-Kukaiti, and the area surrounding Al-MazrubGovernment of Sudan – SFA30Sudan Tribune, Darfur 24
2026-09-15inside the Al-Naam marketMisseriya – Ngok Dinka20Sudan War Monitor
2026-09-15border market of Al-Naam, 10 km north of AbyeiMisseriya – Ngok Dinka400Reuters News, AllAfrica, Sudan War Monitor
2026-09-14 – 2026-09-16Jabal Kadam area located in the Bakuri localityGovernment of Sudan – SFA60Sudan War Monitor, Sudan War Monitor
2026-09-13 – 2026-09-14Ed DamazinGovernment of Sudan – SFA10Sudan Tribune, ACJPS, Darfur 24
2026-09-13on the Al-Asfiya fuel station and Nawafel Al-Shaheed station inside the city marketGovernment of Sudan – SFA40Sudan Tribune, ACJPS, Darfur 24
2026-09-12areas of Adekong, Sali'a, and KulbusGovernment of Sudan – SFA22ACJPS

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30

Conflicts, 90 days8

  • Sudan: Government560
  • SFA - Civilians143
  • Misseriya - Ngok Dinka42
  • Fulani - Masalit31
  • Habaniya - Rizeigat Baggara20
  • Nuwaiba - Salamat Baggara17
  • Salamat Baggara - Shurfa10
  • Government of Sudan - Civilians8

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Natural hazards, 30 days9

  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 16, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 14, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 14, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 14, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 14, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 13, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 2, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Oct 2, 2026
  • WildfireForest fires in Sudan · Sep 29, 2026

GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET

Warnings and notices

UK FCDO: Sudan: Avoid all travel to parts

No severe weather warning in force.

UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS

Next 7 days in Khartoum

Day°CRainGustsWatch
Wed, Oct 2129…400.0 mm39 km/hheat
Thu, Oct 2227…390.0 mm35 km/hheat
Fri, Oct 2325…380.0 mm35 km/h
Sat, Oct 2425…370.0 mm38 km/h
Sun, Oct 2525…380.0 mm35 km/hheat
Mon, Oct 2625…380.0 mm36 km/h
Tue, Oct 2725…390.0 mm37 km/hheat

Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.

Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)

Food prices in markets14

ItemPriceUSDYear
Millet / 3.5 KG16,750 SDG27.91+201%
Sorghum / 3 KG10,636 SDG17.72+184%
Sugar / KG7,506 SDG12.51+103%
Oil (vegetable) / L23,219 SDG38.69+155%
Onions / KG3,625 SDG6.04+49%
Salt (iodised) / KG2,875 SDG4.79+35%
Meat (beef) / KG39,906.5 SDG66.49+93%
Meat (goat) / KG57,844 SDG96.38+105%
Tomatoes (dried) / KG19,578 SDG32.62+121%
Beans (fava, egyptian) / KG11,839.5 SDG19.73+59%
Wheat flour / KG5,196 SDG8.66+96%
Milk (powder) / KG49,125 SDG81.85+97%
Sorghum (food aid) / 3 KG8,948.5 SDG14.91 –
Exchange rate (unofficial) / USD/LCU7,500 SDG12.50 –

Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-09); change against the same month a year before.

WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)

Disasters since 20002

012000: 020002001: 02002: 02003: 02004: 02005: 020052006: 02007: 02008: 02009: 02010: 020102011: 02012: 02013: 02014: 02015: 020152016: 02017: 02018: 02019: 02020: 020202021: 02022: 02023: 02024: Floods 12025: 020252026: Droughts 12026

DroughtsFloods

  • Drought in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, South Sudan, Chad · Jun 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 1609594 km2
  • Flood in Sudan · Aug 3, 2024 · Magnitude 0

GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)