Violence in the news: 561 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×1.2 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Protests in the news: 17 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×1.6 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for September 2026: 1,664–10,524 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 5,648). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
5,467
UCDP up to 2026-08-31
Per million 90 d
402
last 90 days
Civilians
6%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
288
Population
39.0 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
– / 18
Locations are withheld because of the security situation; the total is shown.
Why this level8
- +35,467 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +1288 incidents of organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +1Confirmed internet outages in 5 places in 24 hoursIODA, Georgia Tech
- +11.3 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
- +15.3 million refugees and asylum-seekers have fled the countryUNHCR
- +11 nuclear power plant within 50 km of organised violence in the latest 90 days of UCDP dataWRI Global Power Plant Database · UCDP
- +1Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same timeARMSMA situation watch
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Violence deaths, 30 days
5 467
Violence incidents, 30 days
288
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
5
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Travel advice level (FCDO)
3
Power plants near violence
13
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
1 250 000
Nuclear plants near violence
1
Refugees who fled
5 250 714
Severe weather warnings in force
1
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Ukraine, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 100%
- Non-state conflict · 0%
- Against civilians · 0%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 1.3 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 3%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 10.8%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 5,250,714
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 2,813
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 3,712,000
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 2,663
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $5,866
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Pokrovsk direction areas of the settlements of Sofiyivka, Vilne, Kucheriv Yar, Road, Steppe, Shevchenko, Bilitske, Vasylivka, Serhiivka, Udachne, Muravka and Novopavlivka | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 0 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01 | in Boryspil | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 4 | 4 | Ukrinform, Ukrinform, Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01 | Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 1 | Ukrinform, Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01 | In Kyiv | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 8 | 8 | Ukrinform, Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-31 | Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 14 | 0 | Russo-Ukrainian Warspotting |
| 2026-08-31 | Rubizhne | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 0 | Russo-Ukrainian Warspotting |
| 2026-08-31 | Bakhmut raion | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 3 | 0 | Russo-Ukrainian Warspotting |
| 2026-08-31 | in Kostyrka of the Novorayyska/Novoraisk hromada, Kherson region | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 1 | Ukrinform, Kherson Regional Prosecutor's Office on Telegram |
| 2026-08-31 | in Kherson, in the regional center of Kherson region | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 2 | Ukrinform, Kherson Regional Prosecutor's Office on Telegram |
| 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01 | in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson (city), Kherson region | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 1 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01 | Kherson region (Antonivka, Zelenivka, Chornobayivka, Bilozerka, Stanislav, Oleksandrivka, Kyzomys, Rozvytske, Tomyna Balka, Novodmytrivka, Zorivka, Mykilske, Blahovschenske, Beryslav, Urozhaine, Uchar | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 0 | 0 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01 | in Kushuhum in Zaporizhzhia | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 2 | Ukrinform, Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-31 | in the city center of Kherson | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 0 | 0 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-30 | city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk region | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 1 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-30 | the village of Starovvarvarivka/Starovarvarivka, Donetsk region | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 1 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-30 | village of Stepanovka/Stepanivka, Donetsk region | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 1 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-30 – 2026-08-31 | city of Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhya raion | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 2 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-30 | in the village of Bylbasivka/Bilbasivka, Donetsk | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 2 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-30 | Svatove raion | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 6 | 0 | Russo-Ukrainian Warspotting |
| 2026-08-30 | Pokrovsk direction towards the settlements of Bilytske, Dobropillia, Novogrishyne, Myrne, Serhiyivka and near Novomykolaivka, Muravka, Novopidhorodne and Udachne. | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 0 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-30 | Sumy raion | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 0 | Russo-Ukrainian Warspotting |
| 2026-08-29 | Donetsk oblast | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 3 | 0 | Russo-Ukrainian Warspotting |
| 2026-08-29 | Kerch | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 0 | Russo-Ukrainian Warspotting |
| 2026-08-29 | a village in the Berestyn district, Kharkiv region | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 1 | 0 | Ukrinform |
| 2026-08-29 | Pokrovsk direction towards the settlements of Bilytske, Shevchenko, Novohryrshyne, Vasylivka, Serhiivka, Novopidhorodne and in the area of Udachne and Novomykolaivka | Government of Russia (Soviet Union) – Government of Ukraine | 2 | 0 | Ukrinform |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Conflicts, 90 days2
- Russia - Ukraine15,655
- Government of Russia (Soviet Union) - Civilians14
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days1
- FloodFlood in Ukraine · Sep 23, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in Kyiv
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | 10…17 | 0.2 mm | 37 km/h | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 10…14 | 0.0 mm | 26 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 10…12 | 13.2 mm | 32 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 12…13 | 5.6 mm | 35 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 9…14 | 0.0 mm | 23 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 8…14 | 0.0 mm | 28 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 7…11 | 0.0 mm | 28 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets14
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potatoes / KG | 17.37 UAH | 0.39 | -15% |
| Rice / KG | 52.26 UAH | 1.17 | -4% |
| Fuel (diesel) / L | 91.71 UAH | 2.06 | +65% |
| Fat (salo) / KG | 206.05 UAH | 4.62 | +15% |
| Oil (sunflower) / L | 99.65 UAH | 2.23 | +23% |
| Barley / KG | 25.88 UAH | 0.58 | +14% |
| Bread (rye) / KG | 55.36 UAH | 1.24 | – |
| Buckwheat / KG | 72.55 UAH | 1.63 | +109% |
| Millet / KG | 56.18 UAH | 1.26 | +115% |
| Semolina / KG | 29.62 UAH | 0.66 | +6% |
| Wheat flour / KG | 23.03 UAH | 0.52 | +6% |
| Sour cream / KG | 147.76 UAH | 3.31 | +11% |
| Antibiotics (imported) / 10 tablets | 238.66 UAH | 5.35 | -18% |
| Antipyretic (imported) / 1 sachet | 35.29 UAH | 0.79 | +6% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-08); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 20001
Droughts
- Drought in Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belgium, Belarus, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, Croatia, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, Ukraine, · Dec 21, 2025 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 1587809 km2
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)