Violence in the news: 111 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×1.4 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Protests in the news: 1 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×0.2 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 19–125 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 40). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
40
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
6.2
last 90 days
Civilians
55%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
8
Population
25.6 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
1 / 1
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level8
- +3UK FCDO advises against all travel to the whole countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +262 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +2Nationwide internet connectivity drop, confirmed by two signalsIODA, Georgia Tech
- +25.5 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
- +151 incidents of organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +1Confirmed internet outages in 7 places in 24 hoursIODA, Georgia Tech
- +15.0 million refugees and asylum-seekers have fled the countryUNHCR
- +1Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same timeARMSMA situation watch
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Violence deaths, 30 days
62
Violence incidents, 30 days
51
Travel advice level (FCDO)
4
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
5 500 000
Refugees who fled
5 020 119
Severe weather warnings in force
1
Power plants near violence
1
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
7
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Nationwide outage
1
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Syria, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 35%
- Non-state conflict · 17%
- Against civilians · 48%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 5.5 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 21%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 40.8%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 5,020,119
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 14,029
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 5,542,227
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 1,074
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $1,057
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Masyaf bridge | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 5 | 5 | SOHR |
| 2026-09-18 | Ayyash town in the western countryside of Deir Ezzor | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 11 | 0 | SOHR |
| 2026-09-17 | Al-Sanamayn | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 3 | 0 | SOHR |
| 2026-09-09 | road to Sarmada | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 17 | 0 | SOHR |
| 2026-09-06 | Ghazi Ayyash neighbourhood in Deir Ezzor city | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-09-04 | Kherbet Elyas village in Al-Hasakah countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-09-04 | Al-Qabw area | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-09-01 | Hazm village in the northern countryside of Al-Suwaidaa | Government of Syria – National Guard | 1 | 0 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-30 | Dahr Amoud Village in Safita countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-29 | western neighbourhood in Nawa City | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 1 | 0 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-28 | road between Sala and Rashida Villages in eastern Al-Suwaidaa countryside | Government of Syria – National Guard | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-28 | Al-Sahwa Town in eastern Daraa countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-28 | outside the courthouse in Al-Hasakah city centre | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 2 | 2 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-27 | Al-Zahraa in northern Aleppo | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 3 | 3 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-24 | Al-Qamishli city | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-24 | Palmyra | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 1 | 0 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-23 | between Umm Al-Dabaib village and Shaqqa town in Al-Suwaidaa countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-22 | Sarhein village in Hama countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Unidentified armed group (Syria) | 1 | 0 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-21 | Tadef area in eastern Aleppo countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 2 | 2 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-20 | Al-Naserah neighbourhood in Al-Hasakah city | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-20 | Al-Atareb city | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-20 | Sheikh Ali Kasoun village in Hama countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-20 | Qamhanah town in Hama countryside | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-20 | Daraa | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
| 2026-08-20 | between the villages of “Al-Bahrah” and “Al-Halouliyah” near Al-Hawl town | Unidentified armed group (Syria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | SOHR |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days6
- Unidentified armed group (Syria) - Civilians74
- Unidentified armed group (Syria)46
- Unidentified armed groups (Syria)27
- Syria: Islamic State5
- Syria: Suweida4
- Government of Syria - Civilians3
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days1
- FloodFlood in Syria · Oct 12, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Power plants near danger1
Aleppo Thermal Power Plant Syria · Oil · 1,065 MW
12 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 21 km
Distance only: this does not mean a plant was affected.
WRI Global Power Plant Database; UCDP; GDACS · USGS
Next 7 days in Damascus
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 21 | 19…26 | 0.0 mm | 40 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 14…27 | 0.0 mm | 26 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 15…27 | 0.0 mm | 24 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 16…28 | 0.0 mm | 29 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 16…28 | 0.0 mm | 26 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 15…28 | 0.0 mm | 29 km/h | |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 15…28 | 0.0 mm | 22 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)