Violence in the news: 539 reports in the week to Oct 20, 2026 · ×1 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Protests in the news: 52 reports in the week to Oct 20, 2026 · ×1.2 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 207–1,305 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 451). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
456
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
8.1
last 90 days
Civilians
24%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
147
Population
237.5 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
1 / 1
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level4
- +3456 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +219.5 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
- +1147 incidents of organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Violence deaths, 30 days
456
Violence incidents, 30 days
147
Travel advice level (FCDO)
3
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
6
Natural hazards, 7 days
4
Power plants near violence
1
Refugees who fled
534 326
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
19 500 000
Severe weather warnings in force
1
Nationwide outage
1
–
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Nigeria, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 51%
- Non-state conflict · 26%
- Against civilians · 24%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 19.5 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 8%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 22.2%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 534,326
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 142,040
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 3,544,519
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 74
- 2026-10-21
- GDP per person
- $1,224
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01 | Boima general area of Gombi Local Government Area, Adamawa state | Government of Nigeria – IS | 16 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, vanguardngr.com |
| 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01 | Garkida and Garaha, Adamawa state | Government of Nigeria – IS | 2 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, vanguardngr.com |
| 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01 | Garkida and Garaha, Adamawa state | Government of Nigeria – IS | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, vanguardngr.com |
| 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01 | Ala and Musune wards of Marte Local Government Area of Borno State --- cross the Ala, Gumna, and Musune wards near the headquarters of the area council | IS – Civilians | 18 | 18 | Reuters, AllAfrica, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-30 | Qua’an Pan Local Government Area of Plateau State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 1 | 0 | Zagazola |
| 2026-09-29 | along the Makurdi-Otukpo Road, on the outskirts of Makurdi | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | punchng.com, vanguardngr.com |
| 2026-09-29 – 2026-10-02 | Gwamagira settlement in Karim Lamido Local Government Area of Taraba | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | AllAfrica |
| 2026-09-28 | livestock market in Tsafe, Zamfara State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Daily Trust |
| 2026-09-28 | along a road in Rakung village, Barkin Ladi Local Government Area of Plateau State --- Rakum community | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 3 | 0 | Zagazola, vanguardngr.com |
| 2026-09-28 | Kyado, Ukum lga, Benue state --- Pevikya terrorist enclave in Adomanyi | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 1 | 0 | Zagazola |
| 2026-09-28 – 2026-09-29 | Rugan Jallo, Barkin Ladi | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 1 | 0 | News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) |
| 2026-09-27 | Ojo Road area of Ajegunle, Lagos State | Black Axe – SVC | 1 | 0 | punchng.com |
| 2026-09-27 | Rakum Junction in Barkin Ladi Local Government Area of Plateau State | Birom – Fulani | 1 | 0 | @ZagazOlaMakama |
| 2026-09-27 | Bungudu town in Zamfara State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | @DanKatsina50 |
| 2026-09-27 | Yargada community, Magami District, Gusau LGA, Zamfara State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | @DanKatsina50 |
| 2026-09-27 | Gurumgunki village in Anka LGA, Zamfara State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | @DanKatsina50 |
| 2026-09-27 – 2026-09-30 | Kadaure community not far from Babban Saura, Chikun lga, Kaduna | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | AllAfrica |
| 2026-09-27 | Taggai village in Manguna District, Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 1 | 0 | Zagazola |
| 2026-09-26 | around Lamor, near Lawet, Pushit District, Mangu lga --- near the Mangu–Pankshin boundary | Fulani – Mwaghavul | 1 | 0 | Zagazola, Zagazola |
| 2026-09-26 | mining site in Lajam Marit village, Ropp District of Barkin Ladi Local Government Area of Plateau State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 5 | 0 | Zagazola, BBC Monitoring News Alert, punchng.com |
| 2026-09-26 | Kantoma community in Mangu Local Government Area of Plateau State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 2 | 0 | Zagazola, punchng.com |
| 2026-09-26 | Laja village, Mangu lga | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 6 | 0 | punchng.com |
| 2026-09-26 – 2026-09-27 | around Karani village, Gudu lga, Sokoto | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) | 1 | 0 | Zagazola, @DanKatsina50, punchng.com |
| 2026-09-25 | FOB in Kawuri in Konduga Local Government Area of Borno State | Government of Nigeria – IS | 0 | 0 | Zagazoa |
| 2026-09-25 | Nabar Dutse community in Jos East Local Government Area of Plateau State | Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) – Civilians | 1 | 0 | Zagazola |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days8
- Unidentified armed group (Nigeria)664
- Unidentified armed group (Nigeria) - Civilians335
- Nigeria: Islamic State296
- Unidentified armed groups (Nigeria)263
- IS - JAS62
- Forces of Bello Turji - Civilians60
- IS - Civilians44
- Fulani - Mwaghavul39
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days10
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 18, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 17, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 16, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon · Oct 15, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 13, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria, Cameroon · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 7, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 7, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 7, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Nigeria · Oct 4, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Power plants near danger1
Alaoji · Gas · 1,074 MW
4 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 44 km
Distance only: this does not mean a plant was affected.
WRI Global Power Plant Database; UCDP; GDACS · USGS
Next 7 days in Abuja
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 21 | 23…32 | 0.0 mm | 23 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 24…32 | 0.0 mm | 19 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 23…31 | 0.0 mm | 21 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 23…31 | 0.4 mm | 19 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 23…31 | 0.3 mm | 21 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 23…32 | 0.0 mm | 20 km/h | |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 23…31 | 1.1 mm | 28 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets24
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice (local) / 2.7 KG | 3,200 NGN | 2.40 | +20% |
| Fuel (petrol-gasoline) / L | 2,500 NGN | 1.88 | – |
| Millet / 2.6 KG | 1,200 NGN | 0.90 | +21% |
| Yam / 2.5 KG | 3,500 NGN | 2.63 | +20% |
| Maize flour / 2.1 KG | 1,600 NGN | 1.20 | +7% |
| Meat (beef) / KG | 7,000 NGN | 5.25 | +17% |
| Meat (goat) / KG | 7,000 NGN | 5.25 | +12% |
| Oil (vegetable) / L | 3,000 NGN | 2.25 | +8% |
| Beans (red) / 2.5 KG | 3,000 NGN | 2.25 | +38% |
| Beans (white) / 2.5 KG | 2,700 NGN | 2.03 | +35% |
| Groundnuts / 2.2 KG | 4,000 NGN | 3.00 | +4% |
| Onions / 0.5 KG | 500 NGN | 0.38 | +48% |
| Eggs / 30 pcs | 6,600 NGN | 4.95 | +10% |
| Bananas / 1.3 KG | 1,000 NGN | 0.75 | +64% |
| Oranges / 400 G | 500 NGN | 0.38 | +25% |
| Watermelons / 2.1 KG | 2,000 NGN | 1.50 | +66% |
| Cowpeas / 2.5 KG | 2,200 NGN | 1.65 | -6% |
| Tomatoes / 0.5 KG | 500 NGN | 0.38 | +150% |
| Sugar / 500 G | 5,000 NGN | 3.75 | +395% |
| Salt / 250 G | 250 NGN | 0.19 | 0% |
| Seasoning (maggi cube) / 400 G | 1,600 NGN | 1.20 | – |
| Rice (imported) / 2.8 KG | 4,250 NGN | 3.19 | +0% |
| Oil (palm) / L | 2,500 NGN | 1.88 | +1% |
| Fish / KG | 2,000 NGN | 1.50 | +46% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-10); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 20007
DroughtsFloods
- Drought in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, South Sudan, Chad · Jun 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 1609594 km2
- Flood in Nigeria · Aug 31, 2025 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Nigeria · May 28, 2025 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Nigeria · Sep 10, 2022 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Nigeria · Aug 27, 2022 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Nigeria · Oct 6, 2020 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Nigeria · Oct 23, 2019 · Magnitude 0
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)
Next elections1
- January 16, 2027 – President, Senate and House of Representatives
Wikipedia – national electoral calendar (CC BY-SA)