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Back to ARMSMACountry levels of Oct 19 · source times vary

Ethiopia

SevereScore 8Open the map

Violence in the news: 55 reports in the week to Oct 18, 2026 · ×0.3 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Protests in the news: 3 reports in the week to Oct 18, 2026 · ×1 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Model estimate for September 2026: 140–892 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 311). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →

Level, last 60 days

  • Deaths 30 d

    283

    UCDP up to 2026-08-31

  • Per million 90 d

    6.5

    last 90 days

  • Civilians

    23%

    last 90 days

  • Incidents 30 d

    74

  • Population

    135.5 M

    World Bank

  • Plants near violence

    0 / 1

    near violence / total; 0 nuclear

Why this level4

  • +3283 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
  • +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
  • +28.5 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
  • +174 incidents of organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Every monitored signal

The last 60 days, each on its own scale.

  • Violence deaths, 30 days

    283

  • Violence incidents, 30 days

    74

  • Travel advice level (FCDO)

    3

  • Refugees who fled

    312 831

  • People in food crisis (IPC 3+)

    8 500 000

  • Confirmed outages, places, 24 h

    5

  • Natural hazards, 7 days

    1

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Deaths in organised violence, per week

Ethiopia, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.

The latest week may be incomplete.

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Who the violence is between

Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.

  • State-based conflict · 75%
  • Non-state conflict · 5%
  • Against civilians · 20%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Food, displacement, sanctions

People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
8.5 M
2026-09
Share in food crisis
6%
2026-09
Undernourishment
19.9%
2024
Refugees who fled
312,831
2025
Refugees hosted
1,123,453
2025
Internally displaced
2,378,000
2025
Sanctions designations
10
2026-10-19
GDP per person
$933
2025

FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions

People in crisis-level food insecurity

IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).

FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis

Latest incidents of organised violence25

DatePlaceSidesDeathsCiviliansReported by
2026-08-29 – 2026-08-31Kelem WelegaUnidentified armed group (Ethiopia) – Civilians00My views on news
2026-08-29Anger-Gutin TownGovernment of Ethiopia – Civilians22Amhara Association of America
2026-08-28border areas connecting Awabel and Aneded WoredasGovernment of Ethiopia – Fano10Amhara Association of America
2026-08-27 – 2026-08-29Bahir Dar townGovernment of Ethiopia – Fano00BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-27Kumer-Awlala KebeleGovernment of Ethiopia – Fano30Amhara Association of America
2026-08-27 – 2026-08-28Meta WolkiteGovernment of Ethiopia – OLA00My views on news
2026-08-27 – 2026-08-28Adda bargaGovernment of Ethiopia – OLA00My views on news
2026-08-27 – 2026-08-28Meta RobeGovernment of Ethiopia – OLA00My views on news
2026-08-27 – 2026-08-28Jeldu, West ShewaGovernment of Ethiopia – OLA00My views on news
2026-08-27 – 2026-08-28Abreha Etsbea (15-20 km west of Wukro), a sub-district in Kilte Awallelo woreda, eastern zoneGovernment of Ethiopia – TPLF00My views on news
2026-08-25Central EthiopiaOLA – Civilians1616BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-25 – 2026-08-26Kersa Malima woreda, Southwest ShewaUnidentified armed group (Ethiopia) – Civilians77My views on news
2026-08-25near Felegevini, Atsbi, a woreda on the Tigray-Afar border.Government of Ethiopia – TPLF00My views on news
2026-08-24 – 2026-08-30Aishandim (?), a kebele on Oromiya-BNG border, also called Anger Meteke Kamashi zone, BNG regionUnidentified armed group (Ethiopia) – Civilians22My views on news
2026-08-24near Endabagna, Northwestern zoneGovernment of Ethiopia – TPLF00My views on news
2026-08-24Ganete, Raya Azebo in southern TigrayGovernment of Ethiopia – TPLF00My views on news
2026-08-24 – 2026-08-30Endode Dicho kebeleUnidentified armed group (Ethiopia) – Unidentified armed group (Ethiopia)10My views on news
2026-08-22 – 2026-08-24Dera woredaGovernment of Ethiopia – Fano10My views on news, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-08-21 – 2026-08-22Seka woreda, East ArsiGovernment of Ethiopia – OLA220My views on news
2026-08-21Andode-Shashober Mender 22 Kebele, East WelegaGovernment of Ethiopia – Civilians2323Amhara Association of America
2026-08-21Samada woreda, South GondarUnidentified armed group (Ethiopia) – Unidentified armed group (Ethiopia)30My views on news
2026-08-20 – 2026-08-22Dirre Hincinnii districtGovernment of Ethiopia – OLA00ONM-ABO
2026-08-20Mekele town (near the airport and in an area called Adiha)Government of Ethiopia – TPLF00Agence France Presse, BBC Amharic, Crisiswatch
2026-08-20Balisa woreda, central GondarUnidentified armed group (Ethiopia) – Unidentified armed group (Ethiopia)150My views on news, My views on news, My views on news
2026-08-19Debre Zebit kebele, Senan woreda, near Debre MarkosGovernment of Ethiopia – Fano00My views on news, Amhara Association of America

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Conflicts, 90 days8

  • Ethiopia: Government/Amhara544
  • Government of Ethiopia - Civilians131
  • Ethiopia: Government57
  • Ethiopia: Oromiya49
  • Guji - Sidama22
  • Unidentified armed groups (Ethiopia)19
  • Unidentified armed group (Ethiopia) - Civilians18
  • OLA - Civilians16

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Natural hazards, 30 days1

  • WildfireForest fires in Ethiopia · Oct 4, 2026

GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET

Warnings and notices

UK FCDO: Ethiopia: Avoid all travel to parts

No severe weather warning in force.

UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS

Next 7 days in Addis Ababa

Day°CRainGustsWatch
Mon, Oct 199…230.0 mm43 km/h
Tue, Oct 208…230.0 mm45 km/h
Wed, Oct 219…230.0 mm43 km/h
Thu, Oct 2210…230.0 mm36 km/h
Fri, Oct 2310…240.0 mm35 km/h
Sat, Oct 2411…240.3 mm27 km/h
Sun, Oct 2512…2210.2 mm31 km/h

Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.

Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)

Food prices in markets14

ItemPriceUSDYear
Maize (white) / 100 KG7,000 ETB43.62+46%
Wage (casual labour) / Day685 ETB4.27+37%
Sorghum (white) / 100 KG7,900 ETB49.22+12%
Pasta / KG258 ETB1.61+29%
Wheat flour / 100 KG12,900 ETB80.38+19%
Rice / KG150 ETB0.93+18%
Wheat (white) / 100 KG9,000 ETB56.08+21%
Beans (fava) / 100 KG13,920 ETB86.73-2%
Oil (vegetable) / L430 ETB2.68+43%
Barley / 100 KG10,000 ETB62.31+4%
Pasta (spaghetti) / KG275 ETB1.75 –
Milk / L150 ETB0.93+25%
Wheat / 100 KG10,880 ETB67.79+31%
Lentils / 100 KG36,000 ETB224.31+35%

Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-07); change against the same month a year before.

WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)

Disasters since 200013

082000: 020002001: 02002: 02003: 02004: 02005: 020052006: 02007: 02008: 02009: 02010: 020102011: 02012: 02013: 02014: 02015: 020152016: 02017: 02018: 02019: 02020: 020202021: 02022: Floods 12023: Floods 12024: Floods 12025: Earthquakes 7, Volcanoes 120252026: Droughts 1, Floods 12026

DroughtsFloodsEarthquakesVolcanoes

  • Drought in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Chad · Jun 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 2649772 km2
  • Flood in Ethiopia · Mar 9, 2026 · Magnitude 0
  • Earthquake in Ethiopia · Oct 11, 2025 · Magnitude 5.6M, Depth:10km
  • Earthquake in Ethiopia · Mar 16, 2025 · Magnitude 5.5M, Depth:10km
  • Earthquake in Ethiopia · Feb 14, 2025 · Magnitude 6M, Depth:10km
  • Earthquake in Ethiopia · Jan 11, 2025 · Magnitude 5.2M, Depth:10km
  • Earthquake in Ethiopia · Jan 10, 2025 · Magnitude 4.7M, Depth:10km
  • Eruption Fentale · Jan 4, 2025
  • Earthquake in Ethiopia · Jan 4, 2025 · Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:8km
  • Earthquake in Ethiopia · Jan 3, 2025 · Magnitude 5.5M, Depth:10km
  • Flood in Ethiopia · Apr 29, 2024 · Magnitude 0
  • Flood in Ethiopia · Nov 1, 2023 · Magnitude 0
  • Flood in Ethiopia · Aug 1, 2022 · Magnitude 0

GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)