Violence in the news: 6 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×0.7 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for September 2026: 13–86 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 22). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
8
UCDP up to 2026-08-31
Per million 90 d
2.6
last 90 days
Civilians
17%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
3
Population
35.6 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
0 / 1
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level3
- +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +18 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +11.8 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Travel advice level (FCDO)
3
Refugees who fled
7 326
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
1 750 000
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
1
Violence deaths, 30 days
8
Violence incidents, 30 days
3
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Mozambique, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 83%
- Non-state conflict · 0%
- Against civilians · 17%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 1.8 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 5%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 22.3%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 7,326
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 24,077
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 461,745
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 11
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $627
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 – 2026-08-17 | along the banks of Lake Inguri, near Litamanda village in northern Mozambique | IS – Civilians | 5 | 5 | Carta de Mocambique, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-01 – 2026-08-15 | near the village of Cogolo | Government of Mozambique – IS | 0 | 0 | Carta de Mocambique |
| 2026-08-01 | informal gold mining area in Shamba Kubwa, near the Niassa Special Reserve. | Government of Mozambique – IS | 17 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-07-31 – 2026-08-13 | near the N1 National Highway, on the stretch connecting Pemba to Silva Macua, near the village of Miguel, in the Ancuabe district of Cabo Delgado province | IS – Civilians | 3 | 3 | Carta de Mocambique |
| 2026-07-24 | village of Cogolo, Macomia | Government of Mozambique – IS | 6 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-07-24 | village of Cogolo, Macomia, | IS – Civilians | 1 | 1 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-07-23 | villages of Cogolo and Ingoane in the Macomia District | Government of Mozambique – IS | 5 | 0 | Carta de Mocambique, BBC Monitoring News Alert, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-07-18 | Xinavane Administrative Post, in Manhiça district | Government of Mozambique – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Amnesty, Carta de Mocambique, AllAfrica |
| 2026-07-05 – 2026-07-06 | "newly established" base in Catupa in Macomia District | Government of Mozambique – IS | 18 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-07-05 – 2026-07-12 | outposts at Catupa and Namabo, and an RDF operation close to Cogolo (see map below). | Government of Mozambique – IS | 2 | 0 | Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-06-22 – 2026-07-24 | Catupa forest on two fronts: at Catupa and Namabo, and an RDF operation close to Cogolo | Government of Mozambique – IS | 27 | 0 | Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-06-16 | Tete Province | Government of Mozambique – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Plataforma Eleitoral Decide |
| 2026-06-06 | Nonia village, Ancuabe District | Government of Mozambique – IS | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-06 | Xitaxi village | IS – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Crisis Group, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-06-05 | near the villages of Naputa and Nacuale, Ancuabe district | Government of Mozambique – IS | 1 | 0 | Carta de Mocambique, BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-04 | Naua village, Ancuabe District | IS – Civilians | 1 | 1 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-03 | Montepuez Ruby Mining, Namanhumbir administrative post, Montepuez district | Government of Mozambique – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Moz24h, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-06-02 | Inharrime District | Government of Mozambique – Civilians | 5 | 5 | Agence France Presse, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-05-27 | Chiúre district | Government of Mozambique – IS | 1 | 0 | Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-05-24 | Muanona village of the Meloco Administrative Post, in the Namuno district | IS – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Carta de Mocambique, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-05-21 | Litamanda village, along the EN380 Road, in Macomia District | IS – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Carta de Mocambique, BBC Monitoring News Alert, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-05-20 | Macomia town | IS – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Carta de Mocambique, BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-05-19 – 2026-05-27 | Namoro village in Chiúre district | IS – Naparama | 1 | 0 | Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-05-17 | Chitondo village in the Pundanhar locality | IS – Civilians | 1 | 1 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
| 2026-05-17 | Pundanhar locality | IS – Civilians | 2 | 2 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, Mozambique Conflict Monitor |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Conflicts, 90 days3
- Mozambique: Islamic State77
- IS - Civilians12
- Government of Mozambique - Civilians4
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days25
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 15, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 12, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 11, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 10, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 10, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 10, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 10, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Mozambique · Oct 9, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in Maputo
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | 20…26 | 0.4 mm | 48 km/h | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 18…35 | 0.0 mm | 44 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 22…33 | 0.0 mm | 45 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 21…29 | 0.4 mm | 49 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 20…28 | 0.6 mm | 37 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 20…31 | 0.3 mm | 44 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 21…37 | 0.0 mm | 42 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets14
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Onions / KG | 70 MZN | 1.10 | – |
| Beans (butter) / KG | 100 MZN | 1.57 | -17% |
| Tomatoes / KG | 100 MZN | 1.57 | +33% |
| Cowpeas / KG | 75 MZN | 1.18 | -6% |
| Carrots / KG | 120 MZN | 1.88 | +92% |
| Sweet potatoes / KG | 50 MZN | 0.78 | +5% |
| Cabbage / KG | 100 MZN | 1.57 | +25% |
| Maize meal / 25 KG | 1,150 MZN | 18.03 | -4% |
| Rice / 25 KG | 1,600 MZN | 25.08 | -6% |
| Sugar / KG | 100 MZN | 1.57 | 0% |
| Salt (iodised) / KG | 50 MZN | 0.78 | +43% |
| Oil (vegetable) / 5 L | 750 MZN | 11.76 | -9% |
| Groundnuts / KG | 142.5 MZN | 2.24 | -5% |
| Kale / KG | 100 MZN | 1.57 | +82% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-03); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 200017
Tropical cyclonesFloodsDroughts
- Tropical Cyclone GEZANI-26 · Feb 6, 2026 · Post-tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 211 km/h)
- Flood in Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe · Jan 19, 2026 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Mozambique · Dec 22, 2025 · Magnitude 0
- Tropical Cyclone JUDE-25 · Mar 8, 2025 · Post-tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 148 km/h)
- Tropical Cyclone DIKELEDI-25 · Jan 8, 2025 · Post-tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 201 km/h)
- Tropical Cyclone CHIDO-25 · Dec 9, 2024 · Inland (maximum wind speed of 243 km/h)
- Tropical Cyclone FILIPO-24 · Mar 3, 2024 · Post-tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 158 km/h)
- Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 · Feb 6, 2023 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 250 km/h)
- Tropical Cyclone ANA-22 · Jan 23, 2022 · Tropical Storm (maximum wind speed of 83 km/h)
- Flood in Eswatini, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe · Jan 19, 2021 · Magnitude 0
- Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 · Jan 17, 2021 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 139 km/h)
- Drought in Mozambique · Feb 21, 2020 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 42220 km2
- Drought in Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa · May 21, 2019 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 276650 km2
- Tropical Cyclone KENNETH-19 · Apr 23, 2019 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 231 km/h)
- Drought in Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe · Mar 21, 2019 · Severe impact for agricultural drought in 102368 km2
- Flood in Mozambique · Mar 9, 2019 · Magnitude 0.00
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)