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Back to ARMSMACountry levels of Oct 20 · source times vary

Philippines

WatchScore 3Open the map

Violence in the news: 84 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×0.8 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Protests in the news: 13 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×1.3 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified

Model estimate for September 2026: 1–41 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 10). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →

Level, last 60 days

  • Deaths 30 d

    10

    UCDP up to 2026-08-31

  • Per million 90 d

    0.3

    last 90 days

  • Civilians

    13%

    last 90 days

  • Incidents 30 d

    4

  • Population

    116.8 M

    World Bank

  • Plants near violence

    0 / 4

    near violence / total; 0 nuclear

Why this level2

  • +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
  • +110 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Every monitored signal

The last 60 days, each on its own scale.

  • Violence deaths, 30 days

    10

  • Violence incidents, 30 days

    4

  • Travel advice level (FCDO)

    3

  • Confirmed outages, places, 24 h

    41

  • Refugees who fled

    6 895

  • Severe weather warnings in force

    1

    –

  • Natural hazards, 7 days

    1

Source: ARMSMA situation watch

Deaths in organised violence, per week

Philippines, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.

The latest week may be incomplete.

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Who the violence is between

Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.

  • State-based conflict · 87%
  • Non-state conflict · 7%
  • Against civilians · 7%

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Food, displacement, sanctions

People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
–
2026-09
Share in food crisis
–
2026-09
Undernourishment
3.4%
2024
Refugees who fled
6,895
2025
Refugees hosted
1,974
2025
Internally displaced
43,500
2025
Sanctions designations
158
2026-10-20
GDP per person
$4,171
2025

FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions

People in crisis-level food insecurity

FEWS NET does not cover this country.

Latest incidents of organised violence25

DatePlaceSidesDeathsCiviliansReported by
2026-08-29in Marawi CityGovernment of Philippines – IS21Mindanews
2026-08-06Barangay Inug-ug Pikit, CotabatoGovernment of Philippines – IS50Philstar
2026-08-04Barangay Bonglo, Licuan-Baay townGovernment of Philippines – CPP30Philstar
2026-07-29Oriental Mindoro provinceGovernment of Philippines – CPP20Xinhua News Agency
2026-07-29Barangay Estado in Matalam town in CotabatoUnidentified armed group (Philippines) – Unidentified armed group (Philippines)10Philstar
2026-07-09Sitio Kalantay in Barangay PantarGovernment of Philippines – IS10Philstar
2026-07-08in Sitio Kinamuran in Barangay PantarGovernment of Philippines – IS30Philstar
2026-07-05Barangay Calzada, Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao del NorteGovernment of Philippines – IS10PNA (Philippines News Agency)
2026-07-01Barangay Matagabong in Ampatuan, Maguindanao del SurIS – Civilians22Philstar
2026-06-27Barangay Lamin in Malabang, Lanao del SurUnidentified armed group (Philippines) – Unidentified armed group (Philippines)21Philstar
2026-06-12Barangay Tuayan Mother, Maguindanao del Sur provinceUnidentified armed group (Philippines) – Unidentified armed group (Philippines)10Crisiswatch
2026-06-06Barangay San Isidro West, Goa, Camarines SurGovernment of Philippines – CPP20Inquirer.net
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30Visayas (Negros Occidental)Government of Philippines – CPP30Crisiswatch
2026-06-01Barangay Tamlang, Escalante CityGovernment of Philippines – CPP10Philstar
2026-05-30upland town of Datu Hoffer in Maguindanao del SurGovernment of Philippines – IS10Philstar
2026-05-17Cauayan, Negros OccidentalGovernment of Philippines – CPP50PNA (Philippines News Agency), PNA (Philippines News Agency)
2026-05-11Sitio Casting, Barangay Bayan, Marihatag, Surigao del surGovernment of Philippines – CPP10Mindanews
2026-04-19Barangay Salamanca, Toboso, Negros OccidentalGovernment of Philippines – CPP199Agence France Presse, Xinhua News Agency, Inquirer.net
2026-04-17near the town of MarantaoGovernment of Philippines – IS100Agence France Presse
2026-04-17Sitio Catabadan, Barangay San Roque, San MiguelGovernment of Philippines – CPP20Inquirer.net
2026-04-15Sitio Bulacan, Barangay Bolhoon also in San Miguel townGovernment of Philippines – CPP10Mindanews
2026-04-09Barangay Laconon, a hinterland area in T’boli South CotabatoGovernment of Philippines – CPP20Philstar
2026-03-29Monteclaro, San Jose, Occidental MindoroGovernment of Philippines – CPP10Inquirer.net
2026-03-28Barangay Mother Poblacion in Shariff AguakGovernment of Philippines – IS50Inquirer.net, Minda News, BBC Monitoring News Alert
2026-03-22Donsol, SorsogonGovernment of Philippines – CPP21Verafiles

Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31

Conflicts, 90 days5

  • Philippines: Government12
  • Philippines: Islamic State12
  • Unidentified armed group (Philippines)2
  • Unidentified armed groups (Philippines)2
  • IS - Civilians2

Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)

Natural hazards, 30 days1

  • VolcanoTaal · Oct 8, 2026

GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET

Warnings and notices

UK FCDO: Philippines: Avoid all travel to parts

No severe weather warning in force.

UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS

Next 7 days in Manila

Day°CRainGustsWatch
Tue, Oct 2027…352.8 mm32 km/h
Wed, Oct 2127…331.9 mm38 km/h
Thu, Oct 2228…331.2 mm34 km/h
Fri, Oct 2328…330.0 mm51 km/h
Sat, Oct 2428…320.0 mm46 km/h
Sun, Oct 2527…330.0 mm36 km/h
Mon, Oct 2626…331.2 mm26 km/h

Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.

Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)

Food prices in markets14

ItemPriceUSDYear
Rice (well milled) / KG54.92 PHP0.89+20%
Eggplants / KG83.54 PHP1.35-15%
Rice (special) / KG60.5 PHP0.98+14%
Carrots / KG123.75 PHP2.01-19%
Potatoes (Irish) / KG139.38 PHP2.26+23%
Bitter melon / KG96.13 PHP1.56-20%
Cabbage / KG88.75 PHP1.44-27%
Tomatoes / KG111.13 PHP1.81+50%
Coconut / KG33.44 PHP0.55+8%
Onions (red) / KG131.25 PHP2.13-20%
Ginger / KG152.5 PHP2.48-12%
Bananas (lakatan) / KG95 PHP1.54+3%
Squashes / KG50 PHP0.81+5%
Calamansi / KG98.75 PHP1.60+17%

Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-08); change against the same month a year before.

WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)

Disasters since 200040

0152000: 020002001: 02002: 02003: 02004: 02005: 020052006: 02007: 02008: 02009: 02010: 020102011: 02012: 02013: 02014: 02015: 020152016: 02017: 02018: Droughts 12019: Tropical cyclones 5, Earthquakes 8, Floods 12020: Tropical cyclones 4, Floods 4, Earthquakes 1, Volcanoes 120202021: Tropical cyclones 3, Floods 1, Volcanoes 1, Earthquakes 22022: Floods 3, Earthquakes 2, Tropical cyclones 32023: Earthquakes 5, Tropical cyclones 4, Volcanoes 12024: Volcanoes 1, Tropical cyclones 9, Floods 1, Earthquakes 22025: Tropical cyclones 8, Earthquakes 3, Floods 2, Volcanoes 220252026: Volcanoes 4, Earthquakes 3, Tropical cyclones 12026

VolcanoesEarthquakesTropical cyclonesFloodsDroughts

  • Eruption Kanlaon · Oct 10, 2026
  • Eruption Taal · Oct 8, 2026
  • Earthquake in Philippines · Aug 5, 2026 · Magnitude 6.3M, Depth:10km
  • Tropical Cyclone NOUL-26 · Jul 23, 2026 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 157 km/h)
  • Eruption Mayon · Jul 16, 2026
  • Earthquake in Philippines · Jun 26, 2026 · Magnitude 6.5M, Depth:42km
  • Earthquake in Philippines · Jun 7, 2026 · Magnitude 7.8M, Depth:55.193km
  • Eruption Kanlaon · Mar 15, 2026
  • Tropical Cyclone FUNG-WONG-25 · Nov 4, 2025 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 213 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI-25 · Nov 1, 2025 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 213 km/h)
  • Tropical Cyclone FENGSHEN-25 · Oct 18, 2025 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 93 km/h)
  • Earthquake in Philippines · Oct 12, 2025 · Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:10km
  • Earthquake in Philippines · Oct 10, 2025 · Magnitude 7.4M, Depth:58.087km
  • Tropical Cyclone MATMO-25 · Oct 1, 2025 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 167 km/h)
  • Earthquake in Philippines · Sep 30, 2025 · Magnitude 6.9M, Depth:10km
  • Tropical Cyclone BUALOI-25 · Sep 23, 2025 · Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 148 km/h)

GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)