Violence in the news: 9 reports in the week to Oct 20, 2026 · ×1.7 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 0–23 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 12). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
12
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
1.3
last 90 days
Civilians
93%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
4
Population
10.8 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
0 / 0
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level2
- +112 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +1Violence deaths, 30 days: 12, 12.0× the 30 days of UCDP data beforeUCDP GED Candidate
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Travel advice level (FCDO)
1
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
1
Refugees who fled
1 871
Violence deaths, 30 days
12
Violence incidents, 30 days
4
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Papua New Guinea, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 7%
- Non-state conflict · 7%
- Against civilians · 86%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- –
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- –
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 30.5%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 1,871
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 10,848
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 70,124
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- –
- 2026-10-21
- GDP per person
- $3,020
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
FEWS NET does not cover this country.
Latest incidents of organised violence15
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | near the Porgera gold mine | Government of Papua New Guinea – Civilians | 8 | 8 | RNZ |
| 2026-09-13 | the Panguna copper mine, Bougainville | Government of Papua New Guinea – BRA | 1 | 0 | Radio New Zealand News |
| 2026-09-09 | Hanuabada | Government of Papua New Guinea – Civilians | 1 | 1 | PNG Post courier |
| 2026-09-02 – 2026-09-03 | in Mt. Hagen, Western Highlands Province | Government of Papua New Guinea – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Post-Courier |
| 2026-08-01 – 2026-08-17 | in the Lower Lai constituency of Wapenamanda District | Waipilini – Baiyer Kaiagon | 1 | 1 | Postcourier (PNG) |
| 2026-07-16 | Mt Hagen | Government of Papua New Guinea – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Post Courier, NBC PNG |
| 2026-06-18 | Hagen Park Secondary School teacher’s residential area and Hagen Tee Primary School | Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) – Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) | 1 | 0 | Post Courier |
| 2026-06-06 – 2026-06-07 | Laigam, Lagaip District, Enga Province | Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) – Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) | 3 | 1 | NBC PNG |
| 2026-05-26 | Hela province | Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) – Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) | 4 | 0 | Post Courier |
| 2026-04-30 – 2026-05-14 | Lower Lai Constituency of Wapenamanda LLG | Yambalikin – Waipilini | 1 | 0 | Post Courier PNG |
| 2026-04-26 | Sambio village in Bulolo district | Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) – Unidentified armed group (Papua New Guinea) | 13 | 0 | Post Courier, NBC PNG, Twan Online |
| 2026-03-30 – 2026-04-05 | Mt Hagen city | Kombolga – Minimbi Papike | 1 | 0 | NBC PNG |
| 2026-02-01 – 2026-02-03 | between the Bakumbari and Kikiri villages, Popondetta District of Northern Province /// at Bakubari Village in Popondetta | I don't care – Civilians | 5 | 5 | NBC (PNG), NBC (PNG), Post Courier (PNG) |
| 2026-01-26 – 2026-02-01 | Port Moresby, at 2-Mile settlement | Government of Papua New Guinea – Civilians | 2 | 2 | ForeignAffairs.co.nz, Radio New Zealand News, Radio New Zealand News |
| 2026-01-01 – 2026-04-09 | Kagua Central, Southern Highlands Province [Coded to Kagua-Eave district based on wikipedia page for the dirtsict saying Kagua central LLG is located there, but no additional information found on its | Mirupa – Wambea | 13 | 0 | NBC PNG |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days3
- Government of Papua New Guinea - Civilians12
- Papua New Guinea: Bougainville1
- Waipilini - Baiyer Kaiagon1
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days25
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 15, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 14, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 6, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 6, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 6, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 5, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 5, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 5, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Papua New Guinea · Oct 5, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in Port Moresby
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 21 | 25…30 | 0.0 mm | 53 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 25…29 | 0.5 mm | 57 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 24…29 | 0.0 mm | 51 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 24…30 | 0.0 mm | 42 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 25…31 | 0.0 mm | 43 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 24…31 | 0.0 mm | 46 km/h | |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 24…31 | 3.6 mm | 44 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Disasters since 20009
Earthquakes
- Earthquake in Papua New Guinea · May 20, 2025 · Magnitude 6.5M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Papua New Guinea · Mar 23, 2024 · Magnitude 6.9M, Depth:40.151km
- Earthquake in Papua New Guinea · Oct 7, 2023 · Magnitude 6.9M, Depth:76.011km
- Earthquake in Papua New Guinea · Jun 19, 2023 · Magnitude 5.9M, Depth:21.184km
- Earthquake in Papua New Guinea · Apr 2, 2023 · Magnitude 7M, Depth:70km
- Earthquake in Papua New Guinea · Sep 10, 2022 · Magnitude 7.6M, Depth:90.013km
- Earthquake in Papua New Guinea · Jul 17, 2020 · Magnitude 7M, Depth:79.79km
- Earthquake in New Britain Region, P.N.G. · May 14, 2019 · Magnitude 7.5M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Eastern New Guinea Reg., P.N.G. · May 6, 2019 · Magnitude 7.2M, Depth:126.92km
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)