Violence in the news: 20 reports in the week to Oct 18, 2026 · ×1.5 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for September 2026: 2–52 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 16). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
16
UCDP up to 2026-08-31
Per million 90 d
1.5
last 90 days
Civilians
0%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
2
Population
21.0 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
0 / 0
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level6
- +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +2Nationwide internet connectivity drop, confirmed by two signalsIODA, Georgia Tech
- +116 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +1Violence deaths, 30 days: 16, 8.0× the 30 days of UCDP data beforeUCDP GED Candidate
- +12.8 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
- +1Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity at the same timeARMSMA situation watch
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Travel advice level (FCDO)
3
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
2 750 000
Refugees who fled
32 392
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
2
Violence deaths, 30 days
16
Violence incidents, 30 days
2
Nationwide outage
1
–
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Chad, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 0%
- Non-state conflict · 100%
- Against civilians · 0%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 2.8 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 13%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 33.6%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 32,392
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 1,511,634
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 219,595
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 5
- 2026-10-19
- GDP per person
- $1,022
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence20
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | about 20 kilometers east of Oum-Hadjer, in the Massalat canton | Unidentified armed group (Chad) – Unidentified armed group (Chad) | 10 | 0 | Xinhua, Tchadinfos, newsaf.cgtn.com |
| 2026-08-20 | Alkhaba, a locality located about 17 km from Oum-Hadjer in Batha Est Department --- Rebmbara and Alkhaba areas | Unidentified armed group (Chad) – Unidentified armed group (Chad) | 6 | 0 | Xinhua, Tchadinfos, newsaf.cgtn.com |
| 2026-07-10 | Nangassou Glassé village, in the Nangassou of Chad's Manbagué Division | Farmers (Chad) – Herders (Chad) | 2 | 0 | @MimiMefoInfo |
| 2026-06-09 – 2026-06-10 | Wolouwa locality, Lake Province in Chad --- Wolouwa, an island locality located about 50 kilometers southeast of Bol. | Daguia (Buduma) – Kella Dallah (Buduma) | 3 | 0 | Crisis Watch, @MimiMefoInfo, Tchadinfos |
| 2026-06-06 | around Kim and Koyom, sub-prefecture of Kim, Mayo-Kebbi East province | Fulani – Kim | 11 | 0 | Crisis Watch, Alwihda, Tchadinfos |
| 2026-05-31 | Hollo, in the Kome Ndolebe district, | Farmers (Chad) – Herders (Chad) | 6 | 0 | Alwihda |
| 2026-05-08 – 2026-05-09 | Lake Chad --- Shuwa island, where Nigeria, Niger and Chad meet on the lake | Government of Nigeria – JAS | 24 | 24 | Agence France Presse, Agence France Presse, RFI.fr |
| 2026-05-06 | Lake Chad --- Kaïga Kindjiria | Government of Nigeria – JAS | 2 | 0 | Agence France Presse, RFI.fr, Jeune Afrique.com - Premium |
| 2026-05-04 | military base located on the island of Barka Tolorom, within Lake Chad --- Barka Tolorom military base | Government of Nigeria – JAS | 24 | 0 | Agence France Presse, Jeune Afrique.com, RFI.fr |
| 2026-04-29 | – | Unidentified armed group (Chad) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Agence France Presse, Agence France Presse, Journal du Tchad.com |
| 2026-04-27 | Guéréda sub-prefecture | Tama – Zaghawa | 3 | 0 | Agence France Presse, Crisis Watch |
| 2026-04-25 – 2026-04-26 | Igote area, in the Dar Tama department, in the Wadi Fira province, near Guéréda | Tama – Zaghawa | 42 | 0 | Agence France Presse, Jeune Afrique.com, AllAfrica |
| 2026-03-24 – 2026-03-27 | Fitine Island in the Lake Chad region of Chad | Government of Chad – IS | 6 | 0 | @MimiMefoInfo, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-03-18 | city of Tine | Government of Sudan – SFA | 24 | 24 | Sudan Tribune, OHCHR, Sudan War Monitor |
| 2026-03-03 | Seta, a town located 65 km east of Massenya in the Chari-Baguirmi province | Farmers (Chad) – Herders (Chad) | 5 | 0 | Crisis Watch, Alwihda, Tchadinfos |
| 2026-03-02 – 2026-03-03 | southeast of #Bol , in the #Kouloufou and #Kangalom area | Government of Nigeria – JAS | 9 | 0 | Xinhua News Agency, Crisis Watch, Alwihda |
| 2026-02-23 | villages of Nday and Sako, located in the departments of Kouh-Ouest and Kouh-Est respectively. | Unidentified armed group (Chad) – Unidentified armed group (Chad) | 3 | 0 | Tchadinfos |
| 2026-02-13 | – | Government of Chad – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Tchadinfos |
| 2026-01-13 | Korbol, in the province of Moyen-Chari | Unidentified armed group (Chad) – Unidentified armed group (Chad) | 6 | 0 | Agence France Presse, Crisis Watch, Alwihda |
| 2026-01-11 – 2026-01-17 | Korbol | Government of Chad – Civilians | 0 | 0 | Crisis Watch |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Conflicts, 90 days4
- Unidentified armed groups (Chad)16
- Fulani - Kim11
- Daguia (Buduma) - Kella Dallah (Buduma)3
- Farmers (Chad) - Herders (Chad)2
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days2
- WildfireForest fires in Chad · Oct 10, 2026
- FloodFlood in Chad · Sep 29, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in N'Djamena
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 | 26…39 | 0.0 mm | 37 km/h | heat |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 25…38 | 0.0 mm | 39 km/h | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 26…39 | 0.0 mm | 37 km/h | heat |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 26…38 | 0.0 mm | 39 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 24…37 | 0.0 mm | 36 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 23…36 | 0.0 mm | 35 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 23…36 | 0.0 mm | 31 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets14
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sorghum / KG | 170.51 XAF | 0.30 | – |
| Millet / KG | 211.6 XAF | 0.36 | -17% |
| Beans (niebe) / KG | 327.78 XAF | 0.57 | -39% |
| Sesame / KG | 621 XAF | 1.08 | -26% |
| Rice (imported) / KG | 604.78 XAF | 1.05 | +1% |
| Pasta / KG | 1,100.84 XAF | 1.91 | -22% |
| Salt / KG | 581.92 XAF | 1.01 | -16% |
| Wheat flour / KG | 774.89 XAF | 1.35 | -5% |
| Oil (groundnut) / L | 1,241.63 XAF | 2.16 | -33% |
| Dates / KG | 1,145.1 XAF | 1.98 | -17% |
| Sweet potatoes / KG | 181.46 XAF | 0.32 | – |
| Okra (dry) / KG | 1,573.52 XAF | 2.73 | -58% |
| Onions (red) / KG | 545.75 XAF | 0.95 | -37% |
| Tomatoes (dried) / KG | 1,346.64 XAF | 2.34 | -38% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-06); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 20002
DroughtsFloods
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)