Violence in the news: 402 reports in the week to Oct 20, 2026 · ×0.9 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Protests in the news: 45 reports in the week to Oct 20, 2026 · ×1.2 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 13–90 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 47). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
47
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
1.7
last 90 days
Civilians
26%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
17
Population
92.4 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
4 / 18
near violence / total; 1 nuclear
Why this level2
- +3UK FCDO advises against all travel to the whole countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +115 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Violence deaths, 30 days
15
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
2
Travel advice level (FCDO)
4
Violence incidents, 30 days
12
Refugees who fled
207 175
Power plants near violence
3
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Iran, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 93%
- Non-state conflict · 0%
- Against civilians · 7%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- –
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- –
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 6.7%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 207,175
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 770,514
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- –
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 2,820
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $3,924
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
FEWS NET does not cover this country.
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01 | Ahmadabad checkpoint in Rask County | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-23 | Strait of Hormuz | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 1 | 1 | Agence France Presse |
| 2026-09-23 | Jahadabad area, Saravan County | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 6 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-21 | Iranshahr County | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-18 | city of Zahedan | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 2 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-14 | Zahedan | Unidentified armed group (Iran) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-13 | off the coasts of Hengam and Qeshm islands | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 1 | 0 | Agence France Presse, Agence France Presse |
| 2026-09-12 | Saravan County | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 7 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-08 | Parud District, Rask County | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-08 | town of Piranshahr | Unidentified armed group (Iran) – Unidentified armed group (Iran) | 1 | 0 | Agence France Presse, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-07 | Sistan-Baluchestan | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 3 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-05 | Kurin district of Zahedan County | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 2 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-02 | Bahmai County | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 1 | 0 | Xinhua News Agency |
| 2026-09-01 | residence in Kuhestak | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 5 | 5 | Agence France Presse, Al Jazeera English, Airwars |
| 2026-09-01 | three other locations in the province. | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 7 | 0 | Agence France Presse, Agence France Presse, Al Jazeera English |
| 2026-09-01 – 2026-09-02 | Lavan Island | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 3 | 0 | Agence France Presse |
| 2026-09-01 | Kermanshah province | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 4 | 0 | Al Jazeera English |
| 2026-08-31 | Strait of Hormuz | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 2 | 2 | Agence France Presse, Agence France Presse |
| 2026-08-31 | Rask County | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 2 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-30 | Larak Island in Hormozgan province | Government of Iran – Government of Israel, Government of United States of America | 2 | 0 | Xinhua News Agency, Xinhua News Agency |
| 2026-08-28 | Saravan | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-27 | road linking Mirjaveh, near the Pakistani border, with Zahedan, the provincial capital | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-22 | Shirabad area of the city of Zahedan | Government of Iran – Jaish al-Adl | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-20 | Saravan County | Unidentified armed group (Iran) – Unidentified armed group (Iran) | 1 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-19 | Sardasht | Government of Iran – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Kurdistan Press Agency |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days6
- Iran - Israel, United States of America93
- Iran: Government44
- Unidentified armed group (Iran)9
- Government of Iran - Civilians7
- Unidentified armed group (Iran) - Civilians2
- PJAK - Civilians2
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days0
None in the last 30 days.
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Power plants near danger4
Ahwaz (ramiin) · Oil · 1,903 MW
2 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 29 km
Bandar Abbas · Oil · 1,280 MW
5 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 17 km
Bushehr · Nuclear · 1,000 MW
1 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 2 km
Shahid M. Montazeri · Oil · 1,600 MW
1 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 23 km
Distance only: this does not mean a plant was affected.
WRI Global Power Plant Database; UCDP; GDACS · USGS
Next 7 days in Tehran
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 21 | 16…26 | 0.1 mm | 25 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 15…25 | 0.0 mm | 27 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 13…26 | 0.0 mm | 37 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 14…24 | 0.0 mm | 22 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 13…23 | 0.0 mm | 25 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 12…25 | 0.0 mm | 35 km/h | |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 10…24 | 0.0 mm | 21 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets24
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice / KG | 4,563,636.39 IRR | 2.54 | +43% |
| Eggs / 1.8 KG | 5,800,000 IRR | 3.23 | +263% |
| Sugar (white) / KG | 1,250,000 IRR | 0.70 | +92% |
| Oil (vegetable) / 810 G | 3,300,000 IRR | 1.84 | +355% |
| Lentils (green) / 900 G | 4,000,000 IRR | 2.23 | +82% |
| Bread / 240 G | 110,000 IRR | 0.06 | +175% |
| Pasta / 500 G | 670,000 IRR | 0.37 | +97% |
| Potatoes / KG | 1,263,636.39 IRR | 0.70 | +130% |
| Wheat flour / KG | 527,000 IRR | 0.29 | +124% |
| Fish (tuna, canned) / 180 G | 2,900,000 IRR | 1.61 | +184% |
| Meat (chicken) / KG | 4,500,000 IRR | 2.51 | +150% |
| Cheese (local) / 450 G | 2,212,000 IRR | 1.23 | +154% |
| Milk (pasteurized) / 200 ML | 400,000 IRR | 0.22 | +122% |
| Yogurt / KG | 1,690,000 IRR | 0.94 | +56% |
| Salt (iodised) / 500 G | 315,000 IRR | 0.18 | +85% |
| Tea (black) / 500 G | 6,500,000 IRR | 3.62 | +117% |
| Tomatoes (paste) / KG | 3,136,363.87 IRR | 1.75 | +269% |
| Handwash soap / 0.13 KG | 650,000 IRR | 0.36 | +124% |
| Shampoo / 450 ML | 1,900,000 IRR | 1.06 | +124% |
| Beans (kidney red) / 900 G | 4,900,000 IRR | 2.73 | +53% |
| Chickpeas / 900 G | 3,800,000 IRR | 2.12 | +73% |
| Peas (yellow, split) / 900 G | 4,000,000 IRR | 2.23 | +25% |
| Apples / KG | 3,200,000 IRR | 1.78 | +113% |
| Cucumbers / KG | 1,200,000 IRR | 0.67 | +71% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-10); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 200010
EarthquakesFloods
- Earthquake in Islamic Republic of Iran · Jan 28, 2023 · Magnitude 5.9M, Depth:16km
- Earthquake in Islamic Republic of Iran · Jan 18, 2023 · Magnitude 5.8M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Islamic Republic of Iran · Oct 5, 2022 · Magnitude 5.6M, Depth:15km
- Earthquake in Islamic Republic of Iran · Jul 1, 2022 · Magnitude 6M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Islamic Republic of Iran · Jun 25, 2022 · Magnitude 5.6M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Iran · Nov 14, 2021 · Magnitude 6.3M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Islamic Republic of Iran · Apr 18, 2021 · Magnitude 5.8M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Iran · Feb 23, 2020 · Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:6.43km
- Earthquake in Iran · Nov 7, 2019 · Magnitude 5.9M, Depth:10km
- Flood in Iran, Islamic Republic of · Mar 4, 2019 · Magnitude 0.00
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)