Violence in the news: 266 reports in the week to Oct 18, 2026 · ×0.7 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Protests in the news: 30 reports in the week to Oct 18, 2026 · ×0.5 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for September 2026: 10–67 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 40). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
36
UCDP up to 2026-08-31
Per million 90 d
1.2
last 90 days
Civilians
40%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
14
Population
64.7 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
3 / 16
near violence / total; 1 nuclear
Why this level2
- +236 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +11 nuclear power plant within 50 km of organised violence in the latest 90 days of UCDP dataWRI Global Power Plant Database · UCDP
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Refugees who fled
3 894
Nuclear plants near violence
1
Power plants near violence
3
Violence deaths, 30 days
36
Violence incidents, 30 days
14
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
–
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
5
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
South Africa, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 9%
- Non-state conflict · 53%
- Against civilians · 39%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- –
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- –
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 11.2%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 3,894
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 137,535
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- –
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 81
- 2026-10-19
- GDP per person
- $6,598
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
FEWS NET does not cover this country.
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | on the N2 highway in Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 1 | 0 | Cape Argus, Cape Argus, News24 online |
| 2026-08-24 | Marshall Crescent, Happy Valley, Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 3 | 0 | Cape Argus, News24 online |
| 2026-08-23 | Silvertown, Athlone, Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 5 | 0 | Cape Argus, News24 online |
| 2026-08-21 – 2026-08-24 | Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 5 | 0 | Cape Argus, AllAfrica |
| 2026-08-20 | Bongani area of Knysna | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Xinhua News Agency, News24 online, News24 online |
| 2026-08-17 | Elsies River, Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | News24 online |
| 2026-08-15 | Newclare, Johannesburg | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 3 | 0 | News24 online |
| 2026-08-09 | Barcelona informal settlement, Gugulethu | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 3 | 0 | News24 online, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-08 | Langa | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 5 | 0 | News24 online, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-08 | Khayelitsha | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 3 | 0 | News24 online, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-07 | Reiger Park, Gauteng | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 2 | 2 | News24 online, News24 online, News24 online |
| 2026-08-07 | Reiger Park, Gauteng | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 2 | 0 | News24 online, News24 online, News24 online |
| 2026-08-05 | Bo-Kaap community, Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Cape Argus |
| 2026-08-01 | along Old Klipfontein Road, Nyanga, Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 4 | 0 | Cape Times |
| 2026-07-29 – 2026-08-01 | Mitchells Plain | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 3 | 0 | News24 online |
| 2026-07-25 | Kempton Park in Gauteng | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 4 | 4 | News24 online |
| 2026-07-23 | Bellville, Cape Town | Government of South Africa – Civilians | 1 | 1 | The Premium Times, punchng.com, vanguardngr.com |
| 2026-07-23 | Newfields Village in Hanover Park, Cape Town | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 1 | 0 | News24 online |
| 2026-07-18 | Khayelitsha | March and March, Operation Dudula – Civilians | 1 | 1 | AllAfrica |
| 2026-07-18 | Prieska in the Northern Cape Province. | March and March, Operation Dudula – Civilians | 1 | 1 | AllAfrica |
| 2026-07-14 | Khayelitsha, Cape Town, | March and March, Operation Dudula – Civilians | 1 | 1 | AllAfrica |
| 2026-07-13 | Bonteheuwel in CapeTown | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | News24 online |
| 2026-07-12 | outside a home in Godetia Street, Wesbank, Malmesbury | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Unidentified armed group (South Africa) | 2 | 2 | News24 online |
| 2026-07-10 – 2026-08-02 | body found in Delmas --- reported missing in Bronkhorstspruit | Unidentified armed group (South Africa) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | News24 online |
| 2026-07-10 | Germiston | March and March, Operation Dudula – Civilians | 3 | 3 | Agence France Presse |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Conflicts, 90 days5
- Unidentified armed groups (South Africa)42
- Unidentified armed group (South Africa) - Civilians15
- March and March, Operation Dudula - Civilians13
- Unidentified armed group (South Africa)7
- Government of South Africa - Civilians3
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days1
- WildfireForest fires in South Africa · Oct 10, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Power plants near danger3
Ankerlig · Oil · 1,327 MW
18 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 10 km
Kendal power station · Coal · 4,116 MW
1 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 38 km
Koeberg · Nuclear · 1,800 MW
22 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 19 km
Distance only: this does not mean a plant was affected.
WRI Global Power Plant Database; UCDP; GDACS · USGS
Next 7 days in Pretoria
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 | 17…31 | 0.1 mm | 65 km/h | |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 13…28 | 0.0 mm | 39 km/h | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 14…31 | 0.0 mm | 36 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 18…33 | 0.0 mm | 48 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 19…33 | 0.0 mm | 40 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 16…30 | 0.0 mm | 39 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 15…31 | 0.0 mm | 37 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Disasters since 20008
FloodsTropical cyclonesDroughts
- Flood in Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe · Jan 19, 2026 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in South Africa · Jun 9, 2025 · Magnitude 0
- Tropical Cyclone FILIPO-24 · Mar 3, 2024 · Post-tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 158 km/h)
- Flood in South Africa · Apr 9, 2022 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Eswatini, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe · Jan 19, 2021 · Magnitude 0
- Drought in Lesotho, South Africa · Mar 21, 2020 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 146335 km2
- Drought in Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, South Africa · May 21, 2019 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 276650 km2
- Drought in Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe · Mar 21, 2019 · Severe impact for agricultural drought in 102368 km2
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)