Violence in the news: 23 reports in the week to Oct 18, 2026 · ×1.1 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for September 2026: 18–121 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 109). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
109
UCDP up to 2026-08-31
Per million 90 d
14
last 90 days
Civilians
15%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
2
Population
12.2 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
0 / 0
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level7
- +3109 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +3UK FCDO advises against all travel to the whole countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +2Nationwide internet connectivity drop, confirmed by two signalsIODA, Georgia Tech
- +28.5 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
- +1Violence deaths, 30 days: 109, 2.2× the 30 days of UCDP data beforeUCDP GED Candidate
- +12.5 million refugees and asylum-seekers have fled the countryUNHCR
- +1Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same timeARMSMA situation watch
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Violence deaths, 30 days
109
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
1
Violence incidents, 30 days
2
Travel advice level (FCDO)
4
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
8 500 000
Refugees who fled
2 510 483
Nationwide outage
1
–
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
South Sudan, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 1%
- Non-state conflict · 84%
- Against civilians · 15%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 8.5 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 70%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 19.1%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 2,510,483
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 605,064
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 1,277,527
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 60
- 2026-10-19
- GDP per person
- $1,080
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Tonj North county | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) | 49 | 0 | Reuters News |
| 2026-08-09 | Alabek Payam in Warrap State, at around 4:00 am Sunday morning, result | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) | 60 | 0 | Agence France Presse |
| 2026-07-20 | Wau town | Apuk Giir – Marial Wau | 1 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-07-17 | Jurwach checkpoint along the Nile in Twic County | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Civilians | 9 | 9 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-07-17 | Panyijar | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) | 17 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-07-15 | Bor County | Abang – Malual Dinka | 1 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-07-06 | villages of Ajiwel and Manyin | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) | 19 | 0 | AllAfrica |
| 2026-07-05 | Walgak | Government of South Sudan – SPLM/A - IO | 2 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj, BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-29 | Duk County | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Civilians | 17 | 17 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-02 | Padang Payam in Unity State | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) | 15 | 0 | Agence France Presse |
| 2026-05-26 | Wuno Payam in Likuangole locality | SPLM/A - IO – Civilians | 17 | 17 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-05-13 | Bulo village in Malueth Payam, Rumbek North County | Luac Jang Dinka – Manuer Dinka | 0 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-05-13 | Bulo village in Malueth Payam, Rumbek North County | Luac Jang Dinka – Manuer Dinka | 14 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-05-06 | Miny island | Hol Dinka – Ayual Dinka | 12 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-04-28 | Kolnyang Payam of Bor County | Abang – Malual Dinka | 7 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-04-28 – 2026-04-30 | Kotobi Payam’s Titi Dola area | Mundari – Moru | 2 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-04-02 | Wungok cattle camp in Rejaf, in Central Equatoria state | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) | 14 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-03-28 | gold mining site in Khor Kaltan area, Central Equatoria | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Civilians | 74 | 74 | Agence France Presse, Xinhua News Agency, Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-03-27 | Gogrial East County | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) | 24 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-03-23 | Mabor cattle camp | Pakam Dinka – Gok Dinka | 10 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-03-17 | Ayen Amuol cattle camp | Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) – Civilians | 7 | 7 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-03-10 | Akobo town area | Government of South Sudan – SPLM/A - IO | 13 | 0 | Radio Tamazuj |
| 2026-02-22 | Kilo 10, a few miles away from Payangai | SFA – Civilians | 2 | 2 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-02-21 | Thiam village | Government of South Sudan – Civilians | 4 | 4 | OHCHR |
| 2026-02-21 | Pankor, Ayod county | Government of South Sudan – Civilians | 21 | 21 | Reuters News, Agence France Presse, OHCHR |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-08-31
Conflicts, 90 days5
- Unidentified armed groups (South Sudan)145
- Unidentified armed group (South Sudan) - Civilians26
- South Sudan: Government2
- Apuk Giir - Marial Wau1
- Abang - Malual Dinka1
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days0
None in the last 30 days.
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in Juba
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 | 24…37 | 2.8 mm | 28 km/h | |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 23…35 | 0.9 mm | 39 km/h | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 25…39 | 0.0 mm | 29 km/h | heat |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 26…41 | 0.0 mm | 54 km/h | heat |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 26…39 | 2.7 mm | 61 km/h | heat |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 23…37 | 3.0 mm | 44 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 23…34 | 6.6 mm | 37 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets14
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat flour / KG | 12,000 SSP | 2.10 | +43% |
| Beans (red) / KG | 17,000 SSP | 2.98 | +36% |
| Oil (vegetable) / L | 20,000 SSP | 3.50 | +37% |
| Exchange rate (unofficial) / USD/LCU | 7,600 SSP | 1.33 | +27% |
| Salt / KG | 9,500 SSP | 1.66 | +58% |
| Milling cost (sorghum) / LCU/3.5kg | 4,000 SSP | 0.70 | +33% |
| Onions / KG | 14,643 SSP | 2.56 | +8% |
| Rice / KG | 15,000 SSP | 2.63 | +58% |
| Maize meal / KG | 10,250 SSP | 1.79 | +51% |
| Sukuma wiki / KG | 10,000 SSP | 1.75 | +31% |
| Tomatoes / KG | 20,000 SSP | 3.50 | +100% |
| Fuel (diesel) / L | 18,000 SSP | 3.15 | +88% |
| Fuel (petrol-gasoline) / L | 17,500 SSP | 3.07 | +82% |
| Sorghum (local) / 3.5 KG | 16,000 SSP | 2.80 | +33% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-10); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 20004
DroughtsFloods
- Drought in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Chad · Jun 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 2649772 km2
- Flood in South Sudan · Jul 15, 2025 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in South Sudan · Jul 28, 2020 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in South Sudan · Oct 1, 2019 · Magnitude 0
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)
Next elections1
- December 22, 2026 – President, Assembly and Council of States
Wikipedia – national electoral calendar (CC BY-SA)