Violence in the news: 16 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 39–251 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 36). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
36
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
16
last 90 days
Civilians
17%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
27
Population
24.1 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
0 / 0
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level3
- +3171 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +3UK FCDO advises against all travel to the whole countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +11.3 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Violence deaths, 30 days
171
Violence incidents, 30 days
47
Travel advice level (FCDO)
4
Refugees who fled
421 026
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
1 250 000
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
2
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Burkina Faso, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 80%
- Non-state conflict · 5%
- Against civilians · 16%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 1.3 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 5%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 11.7%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 421,026
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 42,953
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 2,062,534
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 6
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $1,148
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Sollé | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram, @BrantPhilip_ |
| 2026-09-30 | Seguenega | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @BrantPhilip_ |
| 2026-09-27 – 2026-09-28 | Niangado | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret |
| 2026-09-26 | Laligai, Tenkodogo/Koulpelogo | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 2 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-26 – 2026-09-27 | Tougouri | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret |
| 2026-09-25 – 2026-09-26 | (Selmoussine) near the city of (Didougou) Silmonsin | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-24 – 2026-09-25 | (Kélio)/Kalo, Ouahigouya province | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-21 – 2026-09-22 | Pensa | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-18 – 2026-09-19 | Kompienga | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret |
| 2026-09-17 | Aorèma | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 3 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-17 | Dourtenga | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-16 | Tibou, in the commune of Sollé (Loroum Province) | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 3 | 0 | Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-16 | Malou | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret |
| 2026-09-15 – 2026-09-16 | Kakourma in the state of (Bobogolasso) Kakorma (likely Koroma), in the Bobo-Dioulasso area, Houet Province Kokorowe, near country’s second-largest city Bobo-Dioulasso (Guiriko region) | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 2 | 0 | Crisis Watch, @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-15 – 2026-09-16 | Malou and Winten, province of Bam | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret |
| 2026-09-08 | Natiaboani, on the Fada-Pama rout | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-08 – 2026-09-09 | Kassoum | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 2 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-07 – 2026-09-08 | Manni, in the Gnagna province | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 3 | 0 | Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-07 – 2026-09-08 | Youba | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-05 – 2026-09-06 | (Manto) in the state of (Fadangoorma) | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret |
| 2026-09-04 | village of (Mahlo) in the province of (Bam) | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret, @KargnHasret |
| 2026-09-02 | Tiwera (Djigoué), Burkina Faso, near the Ivorian border. | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 7 | 0 | @18Echo0321 |
| 2026-09-02 – 2026-09-03 | Bilanga | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 2 | 0 | @KargnHasret, Naïm Touré on Telegram |
| 2026-09-01 | Dori area | IS – JNIM | 12 | 0 | Crisis Watch, @SimNasr |
| 2026-09-01 – 2026-09-02 | Ga in the state of (Kia) | Government of Burkina Faso – JNIM | 0 | 0 | @KargnHasret |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days5
- Burkina Faso: Government277
- Government of Burkina Faso - Civilians48
- Burkina Faso: Islamic State33
- IS - JNIM18
- JNIM - Civilians13
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days0
None in the last 30 days.
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in Ouagadougou
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | 26…38 | 0.0 mm | 37 km/h | heat |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 26…37 | 0.0 mm | 35 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 26…38 | 0.0 mm | 37 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 24…37 | 0.0 mm | 34 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 24…38 | 0.0 mm | 32 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 24…38 | 0.0 mm | 26 km/h | heat |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 24…38 | 0.0 mm | 29 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets8
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beans (niebe) / KG | 412 XOF | 0.72 | -24% |
| Millet / KG | 291 XOF | 0.51 | -10% |
| Sorghum (white) / KG | 212 XOF | 0.37 | -15% |
| Groundnuts (unshelled) / KG | 470 XOF | 0.83 | +4% |
| Maize (white) / KG | 177 XOF | 0.31 | -21% |
| Rice (local) / KG | 383 XOF | 0.67 | -6% |
| Groundnuts (shelled) / KG | 704 XOF | 1.24 | +11% |
| Rice (imported) / KG | 505 XOF | 0.89 | -6% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-09); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)