Violence in the news: 6 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×0.9 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 1–30 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 8). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
8
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
1.1
last 90 days
Civilians
19%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
2
Population
18.7 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
0 / 0
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level2
- +15 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
- +12.3 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Travel advice level (FCDO)
1
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Refugees who fled
173 414
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
2 250 000
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
1
Violence incidents, 30 days
3
Violence deaths, 30 days
5
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Guatemala, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 0%
- Non-state conflict · 90%
- Against civilians · 10%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 2.3 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 12%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 12.7%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 173,414
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 5,674
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- 573,000
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 97
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $6,598
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Zacapa town of Huite, around 130 kilometers (80 miles) east of the capital Guatemala City | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 7 | 1 | Agence France Presse, Prensa Libre.com, Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-09-04 | Santa Lucía Milpas Altas, Sacatepéquez on the road connecting Santo Tomás Milpas Altas and Magdalena Milpas Altas | M18 – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-08-17 | Zone 21 of Guatemala City intersection of 3rd Avenue and 7th Street in the Cerro Gordo neighborhood | M18 – MS-13 | 2 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com, CE NoticiasFinancieras, CE NoticiasFinancieras |
| 2026-08-02 | Men's Detention Center in Zone 18 | M18 – MS-13 | 2 | 1 | Prensa Libre.com, CE NoticiasFinancieras, CE NoticiasFinancieras |
| 2026-08-02 | Cerro Gordo neighborhood, Zone 21 of the capital | M18 – MS-13 | 1 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com, CE NoticiasFinancieras |
| 2026-07-25 | 11th Street "B" and 26th Avenue in the Paraíso II neighborhood, Zone 18 | M18 – Civilians | 1 | 1 | PNC Guatemala |
| 2026-07-23 | Inside an auto repair shop located at kilometer 59 on the road to El Salvador, in the municipality of Cuilapa, Santa Rosa | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 3 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com, TN23 |
| 2026-07-23 | San Antonio las Flores, Chinautla | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 1 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com, TN23 |
| 2026-07-20 – 2026-07-29 | intersection of 21st Avenue and 14th Street in the Noruega neighborhood (Zone 6) | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 1 | 0 | TN23 |
| 2026-07-18 | Entrance to El Arco, towards El Montañez street, in San Miguel Dueñas, Sacatepéquez | Los Caradura – MS-13 | 2 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com, Prensa Libre.com, CE NoticiasFinancieras |
| 2026-06-29 | Las Margaritas neighborhood of Sanarate, El Progreso | M18 – Civilians | 3 | 3 | Prensa Libre.com, Prensa Libre.com, Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-06-24 | Zone 4 of Villa Nueva | Los Caradura – MS-13 | 1 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com, Prensa Libre.com, CE NoticiasFinancieras |
| 2026-06-12 | El Rosario village (Zone 7, Santa Catarina Pinula) | M18 – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Prensa Libre, PNC Guatemala |
| 2026-06-10 | intersection of 11th Street “C” and 10th Avenue in the La Verbena neighborhood, Zone 7 | MS-13 – Civilians | 2 | 2 | TN23 |
| 2026-05-25 | San José Las Lágrimas, a rural community in Esquipulas, Chiquimula, about 175 kilometers (108 miles) east of Guatemala City | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 1 | 1 | Agence France Presse, EFE News Service, Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-05-24 | abandoned house in the Santa Faz neighborhood, Zone 18 | M18 – MS-13 | 1 | 0 | TN23, TN23 |
| 2026-04-21 | Cipresales neighborhood, Zone 6 of Guatemala City | M18 – MS-13 | 2 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-04-20 | a ceviche restaurant (Vina del Mar) in Zone 6 of Guatemala City | M18 – MS-13 | 6 | 1 | Prensa Libre.com, Prensa Libre.com, Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-04-15 | 1st Avenue and 1st Street of the Cerro Corado neighborhood, in Amatitlán | M18 – MS-13 | 1 | 0 | Soy502, Policía Nacional Civil de Guatemala |
| 2026-04-06 | kilometer 22 on the road to San Juan Sacatepéquez | MS-13 – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-04-06 | inside the San Pedro Sacatepéquez cemetery, at kilometer 22.5 | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 2 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-04-06 | at kilometer 27.5 on the road to Santo Domingo Xenacoj, Sacatepéquez | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 1 | 1 | Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-04-06 | kilometer 20.5 on the road to San Pedro Sacatepéquez | Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) – Unidentified armed group (Guatemala) | 1 | 0 | Prensa Libre.com |
| 2026-03-13 | Guatemala city Maya neighborhood, Zone 18 | M18 – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Prensa Libre.com, CE NoticiasFinancieras |
| 2026-03-01 | Guatemala city inside a clothing store in Zone 6 of Guatemala City | MS-13 – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Prensa Libre.com |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days4
- Unidentified armed groups (Guatemala)12
- M18 - MS-135
- M18 - Civilians2
- Los Caradura - MS-132
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days2
- FloodFlood in Guatemala · Oct 3, 2026
- FloodFlood in Guatemala · Sep 21, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in Guatemala City
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | 16…22 | 5.9 mm | 40 km/h | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 16…23 | 1.6 mm | 34 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 16…23 | 3.9 mm | 29 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 15…22 | 0.8 mm | 36 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 13…23 | 0.0 mm | 35 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 13…23 | 0.0 mm | 36 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 14…23 | 0.0 mm | 28 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets3
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel (diesel) / Gallon | 45.85 GTQ | 6.01 | +71% |
| Fuel (petrol-gasoline) / Gallon | 39.73 GTQ | 5.21 | +38% |
| Fuel (petrol-gasoline, premium) / Gallon | 41.65 GTQ | 5.46 | +38% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-08); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 200011
DroughtsEarthquakesVolcanoesTropical cyclonesWildfiresFloods
- Drought in The Bahamas, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador, United States · Apr 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 1079596 km2
- Earthquake in Guatemala · Jul 29, 2025 · Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:10km
- Earthquake in Guatemala · Jul 8, 2025 · Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:10km
- Eruption Fuego · Mar 10, 2025
- Tropical Cyclone NADINE-24 · Oct 18, 2024 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 83 km/h)
- Tropical Cyclone ALBERTO-24 · Jun 17, 2024 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 83 km/h)
- Forest fires in Guatemala · May 12, 2024 · Green impact for forestfire in 6141 ha
- Forest fires in Guatemala · Apr 20, 2024 · Red impact for forestfire in 2807 ha
- Tropical Cyclone LISA-22 · Oct 30, 2022 · Tropical Depression (maximum wind speed of 139 km/h)
- Flood in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, United States · Nov 3, 2020 · Magnitude 0
- Drought in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua · Sep 21, 2018 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 113247 km2
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)
Next elections1
- June 27, 2027 – President and Congress
Wikipedia – national electoral calendar (CC BY-SA)