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Back to ARMSMACountry levels of Oct 19 · source times vary

Nocton

What changed this week, assembled automatically from the situation watch and the feeds. Every line links to its source.

Week Oct 12 to Oct 18 · week in progress

27 countries moved up a level and 5 moved down. 34 countries are elevated or worse, against 30 before the week. 1 earthquake with a PAGER impact alert, no GDACS red alert, no Copernicus mapping activation.

Moved up27

  • Mexico Elevated → Severe

    207 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · 173 incidents of organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · Confirmed internet outages in 16 places in 24 hours

  • Colombia High → Severe

    246 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · 195 incidents of organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · Confirmed internet outages in 9 places in 24 hours

  • Russia High → Severe

    UK FCDO advises against all travel to the whole country · 54 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · Confirmed internet outages in 30 places in 24 hours

  • Philippines Watch → High

    UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the country · Confirmed internet outages in 41 places in 24 hours · 10 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data

  • Israel Elevated → High

    94 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the country · 55 incidents of organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data

  • Italy Nothing unusual → Elevated

    Confirmed internet outages in 51 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 51, 23.8× its 30-day average · 2 extreme weather warnings in force from the national weather service

  • Spain Watch → Elevated

    Confirmed internet outages in 27 places in 24 hours · 3 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · 7 extreme weather warnings in force from the national weather service

  • Thailand Watch → Elevated

    Confirmed internet outages in 32 places in 24 hours · 4 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · 1 extreme weather warning in force from the national weather service

  • United States of America Watch → Elevated

    Confirmed internet outages in 22 places in 24 hours · 2 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 22, 10.1× its 30-day average

  • South Africa Watch → Elevated

    36 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · Confirmed internet outages in 5 places in 24 hours · 1 nuclear power plant within 50 km of organised violence in the latest 90 days of UCDP data

  • Argentina Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 12 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 12, 4.7× its 30-day average

  • Australia Nothing unusual → Watch

    21 natural-hazard events in the last 7 days · Confirmed internet outages in 7 places in 24 hours

  • People's Republic of China Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 31 places in 24 hours

  • Cuba Nothing unusual → Watch

    UK FCDO advises against all but essential travel · Confirmed internet outages in 6 places in 24 hours

  • Ecuador Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 6 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 6, 2.1× its 30-day average · 1 extreme weather warning in force from the national weather service

  • France Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 48 places in 24 hours · 1 death in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data

  • United Kingdom Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 116 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 116, 25.8× its 30-day average

  • Greece Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 7 places in 24 hours · 1 Copernicus satellite-mapping activation for a disaster in the last 30 days

  • Indonesia Nothing unusual → Watch

    14 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP data · Confirmed internet outages in 11 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 11, 5.8× its 30-day average

  • Ireland Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 7 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 7, 2.9× its 30-day average

  • Japan Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 22 places in 24 hours

  • Kazakhstan Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 9 places in 24 hours · 17 extreme weather warnings in force from the national weather service

  • New Zealand Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 8 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 8, 3.5× its 30-day average

  • Poland Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 5 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 5, 5.0× its 30-day average

  • Romania Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 21 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 21, 7.3× its 30-day average

  • Serbia Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 7 places in 24 hours · Confirmed outages, places, 24 h: 7, 4.7× its 30-day average

  • Vietnam Nothing unusual → Watch

    Confirmed internet outages in 32 places in 24 hours

Moved down5

  • Mozambique High → Elevated
  • Brazil Elevated → Watch
  • Central African Republic Elevated → Watch
  • Bangladesh Watch → Nothing unusual
  • Panama Watch → Nothing unusual

Where violence was worst

UCDP publishes with a lag: its last 30 days of data (up to 2026-08-31) against the 30 before.

CountryLast 30 days30 days before
Ukraine5,4674,702
Yemen1,400196
Nigeria1,006536
Pakistan547733
Ethiopia283268
Sudan270306
Colombia246242
Mexico207157

Disasters1

  • PAGERM5.7 – 48 km WNW of Khuzdar, Pakistan · Oct 17

Extreme weather warnings in force9

  • Kazakhstan 17 extreme of 49
  • Colombia 16 extreme of 32
  • Italy 13 extreme of 34
  • Saudi Arabia 9 extreme of 20
  • Spain 6 extreme of 53
  • Thailand 1 extreme of 2
  • Mexico 1 extreme of 2
  • Ecuador 1 extreme of 5
  • Botswana 1 extreme of 1

Disease outbreak notices0

Nothing this week.

Compound crises7

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo – Compound crisis: organised violence, disease outbreaks, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Colombia – Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, natural hazards, food insecurity at the same time
  • Spain – Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, natural hazards at the same time
  • Mexico – Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, natural hazards at the same time
  • Thailand – Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, natural hazards at the same time
  • Ukraine – Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time
  • Venezuela – Compound crisis: organised violence, internet outages, food insecurity, mass displacement at the same time

Built by the situation watch every few hours during the week; a finished week keeps its last version. Nothing here is written by hand or generated by a language model. It is the data, arranged.