Violence in the news: 112 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×1.5 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Protests in the news: 9 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×0.7 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 0–20 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 3). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
3
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
0.3
last 90 days
Civilians
0%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
2
Population
57.5 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
0 / 0
near violence / total; 0 nuclear
Why this level2
- +2UK FCDO advises against all travel to parts of the countryUK FCDO travel advice
- +13.8 million people in crisis-level food insecurity or worse (IPC 3+)FEWS NET
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Travel advice level (FCDO)
3
People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
3 750 000
Refugees who fled
21 098
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
2
Violence incidents, 30 days
2
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Kenya, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 84%
- Non-state conflict · 16%
- Against civilians · 0%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- 3.8 M
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- 7%
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 34.9%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 21,098
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 835,771
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- –
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 64
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $2,363
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
IPC Phase 3 or worse, month by month (FEWS NET current-situation estimates, midpoint of the published range).
FEWS NET – IPC-compatible analysis
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | between Hassan Sheikh and Hayley areas in Garissa County | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-09-03 | Turkana South's village of Lokwar Nakuse | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Unidentified armed group (Kenya) | 3 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-25 | Yumbis village in Fafi Sub-County | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-08-22 | Mangai area of Lamu County | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-07-28 | general area of Wantey Dam in the El-Raamo area of Kutulo along the Alungu Main Supply Route | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 5 | 0 | Reuters News, Xinhua News Agency, Goobjoog News |
| 2026-07-28 | a motorcycle patrol near Halungo in Lafey District | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-07-24 | camp in Sheikh Barrow area near Lafey town | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-07-21 | outskirts of Dadaab town | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-07-12 | area between El Wak in Mandera and Dhamas in Somalia's south-western Gedo region, in Mandera County, near the border | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 11 | 0 | Goobjoog News, AllAfrica, Hiiraan News |
| 2026-06-28 | in Dhashoy area near Fafi town | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-23 | Harasuki area in El Qalow town | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-21 | Gaboy village in Hadado subcounty | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | The Star (Kenya) |
| 2026-06-21 | Biyagadud area, Bangale Subcounty | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Civilians | 5 | 5 | The Star (Kenya) |
| 2026-06-09 | near Laikipia Air Base, next to Nanyuki | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Unidentified armed group (Kenya) | 1 | 0 | Reuters News, Agence France Presse, AllAfrica |
| 2026-06-08 | Elgolisha area near Elwak | Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) – Marehan subclan (Darod) | 1 | 0 | AllAfrica, BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-06-08 | near the Kenya-Somalia border | Garre subclan of Digil clan (Digil-Mirifle) – Marehan subclan (Darod) | 1 | 0 | AllAfrica |
| 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-02 | Laikipia Air Base, in Nanyuki | Government of Kenya – Civilians | 2 | 2 | Reuters News, Agence France Presse |
| 2026-05-25 – 2026-05-26 | on the outskirts of Dadaab town | Government of Kenya – Al-Shabaab | 0 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-05-18 | Kenya | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Unidentified armed group (Kenya) | 4 | 0 | BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-05-18 | Kenya | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Unidentified armed group (Kenya) | 2 | 0 | Xinhua News Agency |
| 2026-05-18 | Kiambu County and Nakuru Town | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Unidentified armed group (Kenya) | 1 | 0 | The Star (Kenya) |
| 2026-05-18 | Kiambu County and Nakuru Town | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Unidentified armed group (Kenya) | 1 | 0 | The Star (Kenya) |
| 2026-05-18 | Nairobi | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Unidentified armed group (Kenya) | 4 | 0 | Crisis Watch |
| 2026-05-09 | Beer-Awayon village, approximately 8 km from Mandera town | Unidentified armed group (Kenya) – Civilians | 6 | 6 | Xinhua News Agency, Crisis Watch , BBC Monitoring News Alert |
| 2026-04-25 | Kwa Kamari Trading Centre in Tseikuru subcounty | Kamba – Somali | 7 | 0 | The Star (Kenya), The Star (Kenya), BBC Monitoring News Alert |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days2
- Kenya: Northeastern Province and Coast16
- Unidentified armed groups (Kenya)3
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days1
- WildfireForest fires in Kenya · Sep 23, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Next 7 days in Nairobi
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 21 | 17…30 | 0.1 mm | 40 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 17…31 | 0.1 mm | 46 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 17…31 | 0.2 mm | 43 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 18…30 | 0.3 mm | 39 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 16…31 | 0.0 mm | 45 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 16…28 | 17.1 mm | 36 km/h | |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 17…25 | 22.2 mm | 36 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Food prices in markets24
| Item | Price | USD | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beans (dry) / KG | 129.17 KES | 0.99 | +1% |
| Oil (vegetable) / L | 288.34 KES | 2.23 | +5% |
| Maize / KG | 58.34 KES | 0.45 | -3% |
| Maize flour / KG | 85 KES | 0.66 | +2% |
| Rice / KG | 125 KES | 0.96 | +14% |
| Sorghum / KG | 56.67 KES | 0.43 | -37% |
| Wheat flour / KG | 93.33 KES | 0.72 | -7% |
| Meat (goat) / KG | 762.5 KES | 5.88 | +3% |
| Sugar / KG | 154.17 KES | 1.19 | -9% |
| Bananas / Unit | 20 KES | 0.15 | +33% |
| Salt / 200 G | 14.17 KES | 0.11 | +10% |
| Milk (UHT) / 500 ML | 88.34 KES | 0.68 | +10% |
| Potatoes (Irish) / KG | 100 KES | 0.77 | +67% |
| Meat (beef) / KG | 650 KES | 5.01 | – |
| Milk (camel, fresh) / L | 200 KES | 1.54 | 0% |
| Meat (camel) / KG | 600 KES | 4.62 | 0% |
| Milk (cow, fresh) / L | 140 KES | 1.08 | -16% |
| Maize flour (white) / KG(2026-03) | 90 KES | 0.70 | -1% |
| Rice (aromatic) / KG(2026-03) | 120 KES | 0.93 | -2% |
| Oil (vegetable, fortified) / L(2026-03) | 290 KES | 2.24 | 0% |
| Beans / KG(2026-03) | 139 KES | 1.07 | -5% |
| Maize (white, dry) / KG(2026-03) | 70 KES | 0.54 | -4% |
| Milk (cow, pasteurized) / L(2026-03) | 131.5 KES | 1.02 | -6% |
| Kale / KG(2026-03) | 80 KES | 0.62 | 0% |
Median retail price across markets in the latest month reported (2026-09); change against the same month a year before.
WFP · HDX (CC BY-IGO)
Disasters since 20006
DroughtsFloods
- Drought in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda · May 21, 2026 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 172173 km2
- Drought in Kenya, Somalia · May 21, 2025 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 124167 km2
- Flood in Kenya · Apr 12, 2024 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Kenya · Oct 23, 2023 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Kenya · Apr 18, 2020 · Magnitude 0
- Drought in Kenya · Feb 21, 2019 · Severe impact for agricultural drought in 49202 km2
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)
Next elections1
- August 10, 2027 – President, National Assembly and Senate
Wikipedia – national electoral calendar (CC BY-SA)