Violence in the news: 43 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×0.9 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Protests in the news: 15 reports in the week to Oct 19, 2026 · ×1.7 · against the three weeks before; GDELT, not verified
Model estimate for October 2026: 12–78 deaths (UCDP, the month before: 29). An estimate from the news, not a count. How the model works →
Level, last 60 days
Deaths 30 d
35
UCDP up to 2026-09-30
Per million 90 d
0.6
last 90 days
Civilians
16%
last 90 days
Incidents 30 d
27
Population
212.8 M
World Bank
Plants near violence
3 / 32
near violence / total; 2 nuclear
Why this level1
- +122 deaths in organised violence in the latest 30 days of UCDP dataUCDP GED Candidate
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Every monitored signal
The last 60 days, each on its own scale.
Violence deaths, 30 days
22
Travel advice level (FCDO)
1
Violence incidents, 30 days
20
Natural hazards, 7 days
1
Refugees who fled
72 978
Confirmed outages, places, 24 h
14
Power plants near violence
1
Source: ARMSMA situation watch
Deaths in organised violence, per week
Brazil, UCDP best estimates. The red bar is the latest week.
The latest week may be incomplete.
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Who the violence is between
Deaths by kind of violence, last 90 days of data.
- State-based conflict · 1%
- Non-state conflict · 87%
- Against civilians · 13%
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Food, displacement, sanctions
- People in food crisis (IPC 3+)
- –
- 2026-09
- Share in food crisis
- –
- 2026-09
- Undernourishment
- 2.5%
- 2024
- Refugees who fled
- 72,978
- 2025
- Refugees hosted
- 398,617
- 2025
- Internally displaced
- –
- 2025
- Sanctions designations
- 47
- 2026-10-20
- GDP per person
- $10,713
- 2025
FEWS NET · World Bank / FAO · UNHCR · OpenSanctions
People in crisis-level food insecurity
FEWS NET does not cover this country.
Latest incidents of organised violence25
| Date | Place | Sides | Deaths | Civilians | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Rua Vinte e Um, in Itaipuaçu, Maricá. | Terceiro Comando Puro – Civilians | 1 | 1 | o sao goncalo |
| 2026-09-30 | passing near the system's Ventura station in Jacarepaguá, in Rio's Southwest Zone | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 1 | extra , extra |
| 2026-09-30 | Colônia Oliveira Machado neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-28 | São Judas Tadeu Condominium, Barão de Rio Branco Street, Flores neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-27 | bar in Marechal Hermes, in Rio's North Zone. | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Civilians | 1 | 1 | extra |
| 2026-09-27 | Chico Mendes Branch Line, in Manaus | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-27 | Caeté Street, in the João Paulo 2nd neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-26 | banks of a branch line in Laranjal do Jari | Comando Vermelho – Família Terror Amapá | 1 | 0 | Diário do Amapá |
| 2026-09-26 | Ramal do Sossego, on the banks of AM-010 | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-24 | Arthur da Mota street, in the Caramujo neighborhood of Niterói. | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 2 | 0 | a tribuna rj |
| 2026-09-24 | Avenida Torquato Tapajós, in Manaus | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-23 | Cidade de Deus neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-23 | Alcedina Moura Emerich street | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | o sao goncalo |
| 2026-09-23 | Benedito Lino do Carmo Street, with 24th Avenue, in the Congós neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Diário do Amapá |
| 2026-09-21 | Rua Geraldo Luiz, formerly Rua D, in the Compensa neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-19 – 2026-09-20 | Trindade neighborhood of São Gonçalo, in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area. | Comando Vermelho – Civilians | 1 | 1 | meiahora |
| 2026-09-19 | wooded area of Parque Mosaico, in the Planalto neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-19 | Barro Vermelho neighborhood of São Gonçalo | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | o sao goncalo |
| 2026-09-16 | Mãe do Rio, in the northeast of Pará | Terceiro Comando Puro – Civilians | 1 | 1 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-14 | Rua Tangerina, near Pinhal, in the Brasil Novo neighborhood | Comando Vermelho – Família Terror Amapá | 1 | 0 | Diário do Amapá |
| 2026-09-13 | Avenida Brasil, near the Vila da Prata neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-13 | Avenida Max Teixeira, Cidade Nova neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 2 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-10 | Granito Street, in the Tancredo Neves neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-08 | Monte das Oliveiras neighborhood | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 2 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
| 2026-09-06 | Ponta Negra Beach, west of Manaus | Unidentified armed group (Brazil) – Unidentified armed group (Brazil) | 1 | 0 | Portal Tucumã |
Source: UCDP GED Candidate, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0), data up to 2026-09-30
Conflicts, 90 days8
- Unidentified armed groups (Brazil)45
- Comando Vermelho - PCC29
- Comando Vermelho - Família Terror Amapá17
- Comando Vermelho - Terceiro Comando Puro11
- Unidentified armed group (Brazil) - Civilians6
- Comando Vermelho - Civilians5
- Terceiro Comando Puro - Civilians4
- Unidentified armed group (Brazil)1
Source: UCDP GED Candidate (CC BY 4.0)
Natural hazards, 30 days25
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 14, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 13, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 12, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 10, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 9, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 8, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 8, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 8, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 8, 2026
- WildfireForest fires in Brazil · Oct 8, 2026
GDACS · USGS · NASA EONET
Warnings and notices
UK FCDO · WMO · WHO · Copernicus EMS
Power plants near danger3
Almirante Álvaro Alberto - Unidade I (Antiga Angra I) · Nuclear · 640 MW
1 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 35 km
Almirante Álvaro Alberto - Unidade II (Antiga Angra II) · Nuclear · 1,350 MW
1 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 35 km
Governador Leonel Brizola (Antiga TermoRio) · Gas · 1,058 MW
21 incidents within 50 km in 90 days, nearest 11 km
Distance only: this does not mean a plant was affected.
WRI Global Power Plant Database; UCDP; GDACS · USGS
Next 7 days in Brasília
| Day | °C | Rain | Gusts | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | 20…32 | 0.0 mm | 31 km/h | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 21…32 | 1.4 mm | 44 km/h | |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 21…32 | 0.3 mm | 39 km/h | |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 20…34 | 2.6 mm | 40 km/h | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 22…33 | 0.3 mm | 33 km/h | |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 23…33 | 0.6 mm | 44 km/h | |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 21…34 | 6.0 mm | 51 km/h |
Forecast for the capital only; marks: heat ≥38 °C, frost ≤−20 °C, rain ≥50 mm, gusts ≥75 km/h, thunderstorms. Official warnings are above.
Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0)
Disasters since 20008
FloodsWildfiresDroughts
- Flood in Brazil · Feb 3, 2026 · Magnitude 0
- Forest fires in Brazil · Aug 21, 2024 · Orange impact for forestfire in 42368 ha
- Forest fires in Bolivia, Brazil · Jul 1, 2024 · Green impact for forestfire in 950351 ha
- Flood in Brazil · Apr 23, 2024 · Magnitude 0
- Drought in Bolivia, Brazil, Peru, Paraguay · Aug 21, 2023 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 319815 km2
- Flood in Brazil · May 23, 2022 · Magnitude 0
- Flood in Brazil · Nov 8, 2021 · Magnitude 0
- Drought in Bolivia, Brazil · Dec 21, 2018 · Medium impact for agricultural drought in 133215 km2
GDACS (orange and red alerts since 2000)
Next elections1
- October 25, 2026 – President (2nd round)
Wikipedia – national electoral calendar (CC BY-SA)